Katina Curtis: Alan Tudge by-election poses tests for Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese alike

The looming by-election in Aston triggered by Alan Tudge’s resignation on Thursday will pose different tests for the authority of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

There’s rarely a good time to have a by-election and this will eat into the window of election-free air the Government was looking forward to after NSW heads to the polls in late March.

This one poses a risk to Dutton who will need to show he is heeding the messages of the 2022 election. But it also risks becoming a proxy vote on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament ahead of the referendum later this year.

Tudge was the fourth member of Aston since its creation in 1984. It’s been in Liberal hands since 1990 but now has a narrow margin.

It sits on Melbourne’s outer-eastern suburban fringe, the type of electorate Scott Morrison was hoping for but largely failed to appeal to last year.

But it’s also in Victoria, where Dutton has long been regarded as electoral kryptonite.

Essential Research’s pollster Peter Lewis noted earlier this week that Dutton came to the leadership with low regard from the public and that opinion now appeared to have solidified.

A campaign could offer Dutton the chance to show voters a kinder, gentler perspective.

Camera IconThere’s rarely a good time to have a by-election. This one poses a risk to Dutton to show he is heeding the messages of the 2022 election and could become a proxy vote on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament. Credit: Gary Ramage/News Corp Australia

It also offers the Liberals an opportunity for renewal.

Just as the NSW senate vacancy from Jim Molan’s death has triggered speculation a whole host of (recently) former MPs might seek to get back in parliament, so too has this news come with the suggestion Josh Frydenberg would try his hand at the seat.

But insiders say variously that he doesn’t have the numbers — outer-suburban Aston is a long way from leafy Kooyong — and that he has his heart set on defeating teal usurper Monique Ryan.

The choice of a strong, professional woman as a candidate would go partway to showing the party is serious about renewal.

For Albanese, the vote will come at a time when campaigning has begun in earnest over the Voice.

Parliament will be considering the final proposals for constitutional change and proponents of the yes and no cases will be circling the country putting their views.

Keeping that separate from the replacement of an MP will be a delicate line to walk when voters are just tuning back into politics.