Why the Canucks need to trade Andrei Kuzmenko, not re-sign him

If the Vancouver Canucks re-sign Andrei Kuzmenko before the end of the season, as it’s expected they will, they will not just be passing up a golden opportunity to get a good return for a player that cost them nothing to acquire. They’ll also be locking in more years of this core of players — a core that is 20th in the NHL in points percentage since the start of last season.

In his long press conference Monday morning, Canucks president Jim Rutherford confirmed that the team has started discussions with Kuzmenko’s camp on a contract extension. Kuzmenko is a few days shy of his 27th birthday, and, going into Wednesday night’s game against Tampa Bay, is third on the Canucks in scoring, with 38 points, sitting behind Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat.

There were many puzzling things about that entire press conference, but the Kuzmenko issue sat with me the longest. From where I’m standing, trading Kuzmenko at the deadline, rather than re-signing him, makes the most sense based on where this team is in its contention window. The Canucks are about as close to a playoff spot as they are to the bottom of the NHL standings, so treading water and keeping the same group together doesn’t help the team push forward and come closer to becoming a contender. The Canucks need to get better, but the only way they can do that right now is to be more efficient.

And when discussing contract extension terms as being in the $6-million range on a bridge deal, as reported by Pierre LeBrun, then you really start to question just how efficient this team can be with Kuzmenko around. While Kuzmenko has been a breath of fresh air and one of the few bright spots watching the Canucks this season, signing those types of deals isn’t likely to make the Canucks more efficient, for several reasons.

First, we need to discuss the wonderful opportunity the Canucks have with Kuzmenko. He’s not a big player, but he’s strong. He has the ability to create space for himself in front of the net. Prior to Wednesday night’s games, he was 26th in the NHL among regular forwards in terms of five-on-five shooting percentage at 16 percent, per Natural Stat Trick.

Kuzmenko is also sixth in the NHL in five-on-five assists rate, just behind teammate Pettersson. While Kuzmenko may have lots of control over his own shooting percentage, the reality exists that his linemates have also been finishing a lot of their shots and boosting Kuzmenko’s assists rate. With Kuzmenko on the ice, the Canucks are scoring on 13 percent of their shots, the fourth highest in the NHL. Kuzmenko has also registered an assist on 61 percent of goals he has been on the ice for, not counting the ones he scored himself. The NHL average for those stats, over full 82-game seasons since 2015, are 7 percent and 53 percent. Kuzmenko has had several extra points sprinkled onto his stat sheet thanks to the variance this season.

And it’s important to consider that since when signing a player to a contract, you’re signing the player to his future performance, not his past performance. The moment that Kuzmenko signs his name to the paper, all past performance no longer matters, and it all comes down to whether he can maintain his high level of offence going forward.

Making a bet based on a player who has succeeded through a half-season’s worth of strong on-ice shooting percentage isn’t likely to hit. Three players that have notably regressed in five-on-five scoring this season: Mason Marchment (1.4 points per 60 minutes this season, down from 3.4), Johnny Gaudreau (2.4, down from 3.6) and Kirill Kaprizov (2.1, down from 3.2) were all among the league leaders in on-ice shooting percentage last season among forwards.

Good offensive players usually sustain much higher shooting percentages, both individual and on-ice, than average players. However, the percentages that have led to Kuzmenko’s success simply don’t get sustained over the course of a full season. Having dug through Natural Stat Trick, I can find only two players who played at least 62 games in a season (or three-quarters of an 82-game season) and sustained an on-ice shooting percentage higher than Kuzmenko’s 13.6 percent on-ice shooting percentage: Daniel Sedin in 2010-11 and Henrik Sedin in 2010-11.

An example I have some personal experience with is Andreas Johnsson, a former Maple Leaf forward who was the MVP of the American Hockey League playoffs in 2018. The following season, the 2018-19 season, was Johnsson’s first full-time season in the NHL. In his NHL career to that point, Johnsson’s five-on-five points rate was 2.4, good for 25th in the NHL, right ahead of players like Filip Forsberg, Aleksander Barkov, and Sidney Crosby. Johnsson was a restricted free agent and re-signed to a four-year deal.

However, Johnsson’s scoring was partially aided by some good fortune as well. Johnsson’s on-ice shooting percentage over that same span of games was 10 percent or the 16th-highest in the NHL. As a result, Johnsson was scoring like a first liner. But the next season came around and it was time to pay the piper: Johnsson’s on-ice shooting percentage fell to 8 percent, resulting in a points rate of just 1.5, or equivalent to an average third-line player at the time. Johnsson bounced around the bottom six that season and was eventually traded in the offseason for a minor league player. This season, the last in his four-year deal, he’s been a point-a-game player: for the Utica Comets of the AHL.

I do stay awake at night wondering what could have been had we sold high on Johnsson that summer rather than re-sign him to a deal. But the Maple Leafs in 2019 were in a much different spot than the Canucks are at currently (they’d just posted a second consecutive 100-point season and lost in seven games to the eventual Eastern Conference champion Boston Bruins in the first round), and it made more sense then to take a gamble on a good offensive player.

The Canucks are in a different spot in their contention window. Rather than trying to bolster the lineup for their star players in Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, the Canucks at all costs need to become more efficient and ensure that these players will have better players around them before their team control lapses. Trading Kuzmenko might seem like a backwards idea to that extent, but consider how poorly the Canucks have fared this season even with Kuzmenko producing the way he is. What happens in the third year of his deal, when Kuzmenko is on pace for 15 goals and 30 points as a 29-year-old winger on a $6-million contract?

One of the team’s issues, as noted by Rutherford in his press conference, is that the number of bad contracts they have has is weighing down their ability to move forward and add pieces. Bloated contracts for underperforming players like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tyler Myers, and arguably Brock Boeser and Conor Garland have replaced the contracts previously given out to players like Loui Eriksson, Brandon Sutter, Jay Beagle, and Antoine Roussel. Simply paving the way for the next wave of deals isn’t going to bring this team closer to contention.

Next, we need to discuss what an opportunity the Canucks have in adding assets to a poor prospect pool. Despite all the losses, the Canucks have made just one first-round pick in the last three drafts. They do not have a single player ranked in the top 100 of Corey Pronman’s list of players and prospects and ranked 28th league-wide in Scott Wheeler’s prospect pool rankings. The consensus opinion league-wide, not restricted to the Vancouver media, is that the Canucks do not have a lot of assets to build this team going forward.

A player like Kuzmenko would have a lot of value around the league right now. He’s a rare player who is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end in addition to being a rookie (though ineligible for the Calder Trophy thanks to his age). Being on an entry-level deal, he’s also cheap, and any team looking to trade for him would easily be able to fit him onto their cap sheet for this season. That means a higher number of potential suitors for Kuzmenko, and it isn’t difficult to imagine he would net a larger return than Bo Horvat, especially since teams know he can play effectively with top players and on the power play.

The Canucks are running out of highway exits to turn this franchise around as a short-term, rather than a long-term project. It’s not out of the question to say that with the assets the team gets in return for Kuzmenko, Horvat, and Luke Schenn at the trade deadline, in conjunction with some draft lottery luck, and big contracts coming off the book two summers from now, they can make a real run for the playoffs in 2024-25 with a sustainably-built team.

Kuzmenko has been strong, but he isn’t a perfect player by any means. He’s a good, complimentary winger for a star winger like Pettersson, but lots of players have success in this league playing with star centremen. By my own hand tracking, Kuzmenko is third on the team in scoring chances taken per minute at five-on-five, and fourth in scoring chances set up by passes. But his contributions pretty much end there: based on my tracking for zone entries and exits, he’s much closer to average: seventh in offensive zone entry rate, sixth in offensive zone controlled entry percentage (including the highest percentage of entries resulting in turnovers at the offensive blueline), fifth in defensive zone exit rate, and 11th in defensive zone controlled exit percentage.

What all that means to say is that while there are no large red flags hanging over his performance, Kuzmenko has failed to distinguish himself as a puck carrier on a team that has struggled to move the puck. While he’s good in the offensive zone, he hasn’t been able to really help the puck get there. Nor is he great at playing off dump-ins: again by my tracking, Kuzmenko is the worst forward on the team in winning retrieval races off dump-ins, and in terms of forcing turnovers. He has not been able to create plays on his own.

With the recent experience the Canucks have had with winger contracts (think of how quickly it took the JT Miller deal to start to turn sour) it doesn’t make sense to shell out any money that isn’t going to players who make a difference at both ends.

The Canucks need to be shedding salary and creating flexibility so that in 18 months, with a young core taking shape, they’ll have the salary cap space to add the players that can help that group succeed. Part of that begins by making the most of the opportunity they’ve been given with Kuzmenko’s strong year.

(Top photo: Darren Yamashita / USA Today)