Liberals lead early returns in Toronto Centre byelection, with new Green Leader Annamie Paul second; York Centre too close to call

OTTAWA—A federal byelection nail-biter between the Liberals and Conservatives was playing out late Monday night in North York, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party was set to successfully defend another perceived stronghold in downtown Toronto.

More than two hours after polls closed in the federal riding of York Centre, the result was much too close to call thanks to a strong showing from Conservative candidate Julius Tiangson. Less than 60 votes separated Tiangson from Liberal candidate Ya’ara Saks, with 115 of 143 polls reporting.

Meanwhile, in Toronto Centre, Liberal candidate and television host Marci Ien was on pace to win former Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s old seat in the House of Commons. But the contest was closer than in recent elections because of a strong showing from Annamie Paul, the newly-elected Green Leader who ran in Toronto Centre for the second time.

Ien had about 42 per cent of the vote to about 31 per cent for Paul, with 120 of 144 polls reporting.

Both ridings have decades-long histories of reliably electing Liberals and have been held by the party since 2015.

The votes Monday marked the first time voters anywhere in Canada had to cast ballots in a federal election since Canada was swamped by the COVID-19 pandemic early this year. In the months since, Trudeau’s Liberal government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on special programs to support people and businesses, barred foreign tourists from Canada, and overseen efforts to buy up much-needed medical gear and coronavirus vaccine candidates.

The byelections also come in the wake of the WE Charity controversy, amid accusations of government corruption from the Opposition over how the Liberals outsourced a $544-million funding agreement to the organization that has paid tens of thousands of dollars in speaking fees and expenses to members of the prime minister’s family — including his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau.

The controversy also involved Morneau, who repaid WE more than $40,000 this summer for foreign trips his family took with the charity in 2017.

Morneau resigned as MP for Toronto Centre in August, shortly before Michael Levitt — the incumbent Liberal in York Centre — stepped down to run a human rights organization.

Jacob Robbins-Kanter, a PhD candidate in political studies at Queen’s University, said the ongoing drama of the WE controversy puts the Liberals in a “challenging spot,” even if he expected Monday afternoon that the party would win in both Toronto ridings.

“In addition to the unpredictability of the pandemic, (there are) lingering issues they are dealing with around the WE Charity scandal, the uncertain economic outlook, and the fact that they’re in a minority situation,” Robbins-Kanter said.

The byelection campaigns began in September as the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic washed over the city, pushing infections to record highs in Ontario in recent weeks. The situation prompted Paul — who was elected less than four weeks ago as Green leader — to argue it was too dangerous to hold the byelections and call for them to be postponed.

By law, Elections Canada would have needed to declare it “impracticable” to run the elections in order for Trudeau to suspend the votes for a maximum of three months. But throughout the campaigns, the federal elections agency maintained it was able to hold elections during the pandemic by implementing safety measures like capacity limits and physical distancing at polling stations, where workers were supplied with masks, face shields, gloves and sanitizer, and voters marked their ballots with single-use pencils.

Trudeau had also defended his decision to call the byelections during COVID-19’s second wave, stating on Oct. 9 that “every Canadian deserves to have someone out there fighting for them, particularly in this pandemic.”

In the latter stage of the campaign, the Liberals and Conservatives called for opposing candidates to drop out of their respective races over past posts on social media. This included Liberal condemnation of the Conservative candidate in York Centre, over a post on Twitter in August in which he commented on the racial identity of U.S. vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

The Conservatives responded by unearthing a tweet by Ien from 2011, where she said a conspiracy theory about 9/11 “really makes you think.”

Neither candidate stepped down, and Ien stated at the time that she regrets “the impression” left by her comment.

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For Robbins-Kanter, the other “interesting factor” in the byelections was that People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier — a longtime Quebec Conservative MP — chose to run in York Centre.

He was set to be roundly defeated Monday, garnering about 4 per cent of the vote as of press time.