A centrist pitch from Keir Starmer means he will need to show how he differs from Sunak

Keir Starmer was looking assured, shirt sleeves rolled up and cracking jokes, as he stood in front of a giant orange robotic arm in an east London design lab to make his new year speech.

Just 24 hours earlier Rishi Sunak had given his own address on the state of the nation at the building next door, prompting the Labour leader to quip: “I won’t tell the prime minister where I’m going on holiday this year just in case I find him there as well.”

But with the two politicians just a few points apart in favourability ratings – and even some of their own MPs worrying whether the public can distinguish between the two parties’ offerings – Starmer’s relaxed demeanour belied his determination.

Labour aides had stressed that this speech was about making his case for a much needed “national renewal” and setting out his vision to the country – rather than announcing detailed policies. We will hear more about those “missions”, around which the next election manifesto will be built, in the coming weeks.

With an election not expected until autumn 2024, Starmer has time on his side to gradually build up to his full election offer. Sunak, meanwhile, is a man in a hurry to prove to the tired British electorate that he can take the country in a different direction.

Key to Starmer’s plan in the run-up to the next election is showing that he understands what people are going through. He told his audience that Labour was ready to “roll up” its sleeves, adding: “We can’t keep expecting the British people to just suck it up. Not without the hope – the possibility – of something better.”

Labour has been accused of spending too much time criticising the government without offering its own solutions. One shadow cabinet minister admitted: “When we say that the Tories have screwed things up with the NHS, or anything else, we’ve got to be able to answer the question of what we would do differently.”

Starmer said he was “under no illusions” about the scale of the challenges the country faced and the party would not “rest on its laurels” despite being 20 points ahead in the polls. Labour knows it still has to seal the deal with voters who backed the Tories last time.

The centrist pitch we heard from Starmer in his speech will be repeated in the weeks ahead as he attempts to reassure floating votes with doubts about Labour – insisting that his plans will be “fully costed” and that he will not be getting the “big government chequebook” out to spend the way “out of their mess”.

Labour insiders acknowledge that it could be a difficult argument for the left to stomach, and insist that there will be some investment in Britain’s damaged public services. But Starmer’s refusal to say that he would match the Tories’ spending commitments, à la Tony Blair in 1997, is unlikely to offer much comfort.

His plans for a “more relaxed” approach by a Labour government to private sector expertise will also trouble some in the party. Yet the leadership is quite happy to be seen as coming up with pragmatic solutions, demonstrating again that it has moved on from the Corbyn era.

Labour still wrestles internally with Brexit, despite the growing confidence of senior figures to criticise the government’s handling of it. So it marks quite a shift for Starmer, who campaigned vigorously for Remain and a second referendum, to admit he “couldn’t disagree” with some of the arguments made by Brexiters, in particular their lack of agency.

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His decision to label Labour’s devolution plans the “take back control” bill may have been surprising, but aides insist it is neither a gimmick nor an attempt to troll Dominic Cummings, but instead to show that he understands why so many people backed leave. It also, conveniently, gives Labour cover to talk about the failures of Brexit and the damage it has done to the economy.

Labour starts the year with a spring in its step. It has come a long way since its historic defeat in 2019. Yet Starmer knows there is much more to do: on policy, on winning over Tory waverers, on reassuring its core support that it still stands for something, on Starmer himself.

Starmer’s straight, almost managerial, style was a welcome antidote when opposing the flamboyant and chaotic Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. But up against Rishi Sunak, who also errs on the side of technocrat rather than instinctive politician, there is pressure to differentiate.

So as well as winning back voters lost last time, Labour also has to talk up dividing lines that already exist, and create new ones, with the Conservatives, if it is to persuade enough people that it is worth voting for.