Instant observations: Christmas Eve massacre puts the Lions’ season on the brink

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It’s no accident only one team has ever come back from a 1-6 start to make the playoffs. It’s just so hard to operate for so long with so little margin for error in the league.

Aside from the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals, it has been impossible.

The 2022 Detroit Lions aren’t dead yet with two games left, although their margin for error was zeroed out by a 37-23 massacre on Christmas Eve against the Carolina Panthers. At 7-8, they now trail Washington (7-6-1) by a full game for the final spot in the NFC, pending whatever happens in the Commanders’ game later today against San Francisco.

The good news is fellow wild-card contender Seattle (7-8) also lost on Saturday, and the Lions still have roughly a 50% chance of making the postseason if they win out against Chicago and Green Bay. They will likely be favored in both of those games too, although will need to play slightly better run defense to even give themselves a shot. And with Justin Fields coming to town next week, who already racked up 147 rushing yards against them last month, the task will not be easy.

Not after this.

The Lions allowed 571 yards of offense, more than anyone has ever allowed against that team, and 321 of them came on the ground, more than anyone has ever allowed against, well, you can probably see where this is going. And it’s a very dark place.

Detroit hasn’t been ripped like this on the ground since allowing 328 yards in a 1998 game against the San Francisco 49ers. That’s right. Not even Matt Patricia was ever gashed quite this badly. And they didn’t waste any time rolling up their sleeves and getting to work, allowing 65 yards on the first two plays of the game alone.

The Panthers didn’t have to so much as attempt a single pass before racking up 85 yards of offense and racing to a 7-0 lead, all before Detroit even touched the football.

Quarterback Jared Goff tied up the game with the first of three touchdown passes to Shane Zylstra, and had an opportunity to take an early lead when he drove Detroit deep inside enemy territory on the next series. But there was a sloppy exchange with center Frank Ragnow near the 10-yard line, and Carolina pounced on the loose ball.

It was Goff’s first turnover since Week 9, and it was a big one.

Carolina needed just eight plays to go 91 yards in the other direction for a go-ahead touchdown, with a 38-yard run by D’Onta Foreman the difference. Cornerback Jerry Jacobs missed a tackle in the backfield on that play, before Foreman sprinted through the front line of the defense and then stepped out of tackle attempt by safety Kerby Joseph.

Detroit went three-and-out on its next series, and the three series after that too, and never seriously threatened again.

Carolina, meanwhile, popped off runs of 21, 21, 30, 32, 35 and 38 yards — all before halftime. It averaged 10.9 yards per carry in the first half and had 240 before intermission, more than everyone except New England managed against that defense all season. And if you watched that defense play in the first half of the season, you can understand just how bad it was at U.S.Bank Stadium.

Then they ran out of the tunnel for the second half, and left tackle Taylor Decker was beaten for a sack on a three-and-out. Carolina answered with another touchdown. Then the Lions ran back onto the field, and right guard Evan Brown was beaten for another sack on yet another three-and-out.

Detroit got two late touchdowns from Zylstra, but also couldn’t convert on a fourth-down pass into the end zone and never really threatened the Panthers again.

With that, one of the best stories in the NFL now finds its season back on the brink.

Let’s get to some more observations:

— The tape will need to be digested before blame can be spread around for what happened on defense, but needless to say there will be no shortage of blame to go around. Malcolm Rodriguez really struggled to fit gaps, the defensive line was pushed around, and the Panthers ripped off a handful of chunk runs without so much as being touched. Making matters way worse, missed tackles by Jeff Okudah, Jerry Jacobs, Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu turned chunk plays into explosives time and time again. And even when Zylstra added two more touchdown catches in the second half, pulling Detroit to within two scores, its defense simply could not get off the field. Carolina marched 37 yards on six plays to bleed all but 1:56 of what remained on the clock.

— Arctic conditions swept across the United States on Saturday, and North Carolina was no exception. The temperature at kickoff was 20 degrees, officially making this the coldest home game in Panthers history, while the wind chill was just 9 degrees. The field was frozen like concrete as the game kicked off. Which might have factored into the Lions’ inability to tackle or fill run gaps or just generally defend the run, although then again, the Panthers never had an issue doing just that.

— Given the conditions, Jared Goff didn’t play so bad. He completed two bombs to DJ Chark and another to Kalif Raymond, threw three more touchdown passes — all to backup tight end Shane Zylstra — and finished with 355 yards overall. That’s the third time in four games Goff has thrown for at least 330 yards. He even led the team in rushing, although that’s never a good thing. The problem is the defense was so completely inept that his margin for error was nil, and that made his fumbled exchange with Ragnow loom large. The game was tied 7-all, and the Lions were driving inside Carolina’s 10-yard line. Then Ragnow put a snap off Goff’s leg, Carolina raced the other way on a 38-yard run two plays later, and never looked back. Goff was good enough to win in Hoth-like conditions, just not good enough.

— Isaiah Buggs has been a good player this season, and a good leader too. As far as training camp signings go, he’s about as good as it gets. He’s been a plus player in all the ways, and against Minnesota, forced a key Dalvin Cook fumble near the goal line. That all being said, he cost the Lions big time with a dumb personal foul late in the third quarter. The Lions had just scored a touchdown to climb within 31-13, and even got a rare run stop to put Carolina in a long-distance situation. But Buggs was flagged for whipping D’Onta Foreman to the ground, although could have been flagged for shoving a handful fo Panthers players after the play too. Either way, it gave Carolina a fresh set of downs inside Lions territory. Already trailing 18 points late in the third quarter, Detroit had no margin for error, and then made a huge error.

— Is it time to start talking about Jameson Williams? The Lions were always going to bring back the prized rookie slowly. But he’s been back a month now, and still isn’t showing much progression in his involvement on offense. Yes, he had the 41-yard touchdown against Minnesota. But he’s had just four other passes thrown his way, and he’s failed to catch all of them. That’s not entirely his fault, of course. Jared Goff underthrew him on the touchdown pass, although Williams was so open it didn’t matter, before underthrowing him again in New York, which allowed the defense to catch up and bat away the ball. Williams just isn’t on the same page with Goff and the offense, and at this point, you have to wonder if it’ll happen at all until 2023.

— Adding injury to insult, top running back Jamaal Williams left the game late in the third quarter with what appeared to be a left leg injury. He suffered the injury while making a big third-down catch just short of the sticks, as Jared Goff threw a touchdown pass to Shane Zylstra on fourth down. But it cost their top running back in the process. Williams has been among Detroit’s most consistent players this season, and often the only thing going in the running game while D’Andre Swift has struggled with injury, inconsistency, and all-around disappointment this season. Williams has run for 14 touchdowns this season, which not only leads the league, but is just two off Barry Sanders’ club record. That’s a big reason the Lions have been a top-five team in the red zone and at the goal line this season. Williams hasn’t been nearly as good in recent weeks though, and finished this game with 11 yards on seven carries.

— Dan Campbell is one of the most aggressive head coaches in the league, and those daring ways have helped propel this second-half surge. But he decided to back off the pedal late in the second quarter, punting on fourth-and-inches while already trailing 21-7. That robbed the Lions of an opportunity to cut into its deficit, but with only about 1 minute left on the clock and a lot of green between them and the end zone, the conservative approach was probably the right one. The problem is Carolina needed just 59 seconds to go 73 yards and boot a field goal that stretched its lead to 24-7. That’s the thing about horrific defense — it can make even the right decisions backfire.

— Ifeatu Melifonwu earned the emergency start for injured safety DeShon Elliott, who was scratched because of a shoulder issue he suffered last week in New York. With Tracy Walker out with an Achilles injury, Detroit was forced to dump its bench onto the field. It wasn’t pretty either. Rookie Kerby Joseph has played well this season and leads the team in takeaways, but really struggled with his angles and tackling against Carolina. Melifonwu started over C.J. Moore alongside him, and had the same struggles. He finished with a team-high eight tackles, although that had more to do with how many plays reached the back level of the defense than anything he actually did. Now nearing the end of his second season in Detroit, you have to wonder whether Melifonwu even has a future in this defense. He’s never been good, often been bad and has never been far from his next injury. The Lions got two first-round picks when they traded Matthew Stafford, but Melifonwu — added with the third-round pick acquired in that trade — is trending seriously toward bust.

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