Army vs. Navy 2022: College football prediction against the spread for 122nd game

The college football regular season draws to a close with the final boss of all rivalry games as the nation’s armed forces go at it: Army and Navy are set to square off in the final leg of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy on Saturday.

As always, the service academies play a traditional, ground-and-pound style of offense with few passes and a battery of gifted backs that should guarantee few points and a fast pace to the matchup.

Both sides average in the top 10 nationally rushing the football, each posting over 239 yards per game and Army is No. 2 in college football with 304 yards.

Army comes in at 5-6 on the year averaging just under 30 points per game, while Navy owns a 4-7 record, had close losses against AAC rivals like Cincinnati, SMU, and Notre Dame, and finished with a statement win over a ranked UCF.

Let’s make our final predictions for the Army vs. Navy game this weekend.

Army vs. Navy game predictions

Point spread: Navy comes into the game as 3 point favorites against Army, according to the updated lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 32 points

Moneyline: Army + 110 | Navy -143

FPI prediction: Army has the narrow 51.2 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams’ seasons 20,000 times.

Pick ’em: Army vs. Navy game picks, predictions: College football odds, spread, lines

How to watch: The game is set for Sat., Dec. 10 at 3 p.m. Eastern time on the main CBS network and streams live on fuboTV (Try for free).

Army vs. Navy: Need to know

Army (5-6): On paper, the Black Knights are just better when it comes to running the football, going over 300 yards rushing in four of its last six games overall, and went over 400 yards in two of those matchups, all wins. Despite putting the ball in the air just 16 times all year, Army actually leads college football when it comes to air yards per pass, going over 22 yards on average.

Navy (4-7): If the ball bounces a different way in three of these seven losses, the Midshipmen might be a completely different team. Navy lost against SMU, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame by an average of 6.3 points, and dropped a 3-point decision against Air Force early in the year. In all, the Midshipmen average 239.5 rushing yards per game and allow just under 86.

Navy Football Betting Trends

+ The over is 5-0 in Navy’s last five games against a team with a losing record

+ Navy is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games after a straight up win

+ Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game

+ Navy is 7-4 (63.6%) against the spread in all competition this season

+ The over is 1-0 in Navy’s neutral site games

+ Navy is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Army

Army Football Betting Trends

+ Army is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games overall

+ Black Knights are 4-0 ATS after allowing less than 20 pts in their last game

+ The under is 18-3 in the last 21 Army-Navy games

+ Army is 6-5 against the spread all season

+ Black Knights are 2-3 (40%) against the spread as an underdog

Army vs. Navy: The Prediction

In a game that remains defined by teams’ acumen running the football, the slight advantage would seem to be with Army this season, posting over 300 rushing yards per game, more than 60 yards than the Midshipmen.

But Navy is the superior rushing defense: it surrenders just 85.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th nationally, whereas the Black Knights are allowing 193.5 yards on the ground. Those two stats should average each other out and make this a close game down the stretch.

Not having quarterback Tai Lavatai has been costly for the Midshipmen: since he was forced out with a knee injury, the team lost two of three games, leaning on back Daba Fofana, who leads the side with 749 rushing yards.

It’ll be strength vs. strength when Army’s backs go against Navy’s front seven, and in low-scoring games, defense usually wins.

College Football HQ Prediction: Navy -3, Over 32

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Facebook