Warnock’s runoff victory puts an exclamation point on the 2022 midterms

WASHINGTON — If it’s Wednesday … Democrat Raphael Warnock  defeats Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia runoff, 51.4% to 48.6% (with 99% in). … Warnock celebrates victory, per NBC’s Shaquille Brewster: “After a hard fought campaign, you’ve got me for six more years.” … Walker essentially concedes, NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard reports: “I’m not going to make any excuses because we put up a heck of a fight.” … Jury findsTrump Organization guilty in tax fraud scheme. … And Supreme Court hears oral arguments in big case over whether state courts or state legislatures should have final say in redistricting/election disputes.

But first: The final contest of 2022 perfectly summed up the entire midterm cycle. 

Donald Trump personally picked Herschel Walker — a political neophyte who had been living in Texas and who had a checkered past — to challenge Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga. (“Wouldn’t it be fantastic if the legendary Herschel Walker ran for the United States Senate in Georgia? He would be unstoppable,” Trump said in March 2021.) 

Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, acquiesced. (“Herschel is the only one who can unite the party, defeat Sen. Warnock, and help us take back the Senate,” the GOP leader said in Oct. 2021.)

Walker, like other Trump-backed candidates for statewide contests, underperformed non-Trump candidates in the November general election. (Walker got 48.5%, compared with Gov. Brian Kemp’s 53.4% and Brad Raffensperger’s 53.2%). 

And in Tuesday’s runoff, Walker once again failed to get to 50%. (He’s at 48.6% with 99% of the vote in.)

One part of the 2022 midterm story is how Democratic incumbents and statewide candidates like Warnock raised gobs of money and ran steady campaigns, despite serious political headwinds. (And there is little doubt that Warnock is a big starright now in the Democratic Party.)

But the other — and arguably more crucial — part of the midterm cycle was Donald Trump’s personal role.  

As we wrote right after the November elections, “Two pivotal events took place between Nov. 2021 (when Republicans won statewide in Virginia and almost won in New Jersey) and Nov. 2022 (when the GOP wave fizzled out) — the Dobbs decision and Donald Trump’s reappearance as the GOP’s unquestioned leader.”

And as NBC’s Jon Allen, Marc Caputo, Garrett Haake and Henry Gomez wrote after Warnock’s win and Walker’s defeat, Trump “was weighed down Tuesday with the new baggage of corporate tax-fraud convictions and a final midterm defeat.”

Data Download: The number of the day is … 4

That’s how many of the five counties that we told you to watch in yesterday’s First Read where Warnock outperformed his vote share between the general election and the runoff. 

Warnock expanded that vote share by about 3 percentage points in Cobb, Fulton and Gwinnett counties, all three of which are in the Atlanta metro area. And his margin grew by 2 percentage points in Forsyth County, a suburban/exurban area outside of Alpharetta. 

The only county of the five where Warnock’s vote share dipped between November and today was Chattooga County, the largely rural Republican stronghold in the northwest corner of the state where his share dipped 0.2 percentage points. 

Other numbers to know:

4: The number of states where local officials received subpoenas from special counsel Jack Smith for communications involving former President Donald Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election, per NBC News’ Allan Smith, Henry J. Gomez and Natasha Korecki.

17: How many counts a New York jury found the Trump organization guilty of as part of a tax fraud scheme, NBC News’ Adam Reiss, Chloe Atkins and Dareh Gregorian report.

$15,000: The fine the House Ethics Committee directed Rep. Madison Cawthorn, R-N.C., to pay to charity for improperly promoting a cryptocurrency. 

4,408: How many pages are in the newly released National Defense Authorization Act. 

4: The number of consecutive days the S&P 500 closed at a lower rate amid fears of a recession. 

80: The age of former Arizona GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe, who died Saturday. Kolbe was the only openly gay Republican in Congress during the last 10 years of his term, per the New York Times.

25: The number of people arrested Wednesday in Germany and accused of plotting to overthrow the government in a far-right, extremist plan.

Eyes on 2024: Rick Scott is a no-go for president

The 2024 Republican presidential field will be without one possible GOP candidate, with Florida Sen. Rick Scott ruling out a run. 

“I have no plans to run for president and I have a 100% plan to run for the U.S. Senate,” Scott said on the Hugh Hewitt Show, per Florida Politics. His decision comes after a failed run for GOP leader and after he led the National Republican Senatorial Committee in a disappointing election cycle for Republicans. 

That means Republicans will not have to contend with an open seat battle. Scott is the only GOP senator up for re-election in 2024 in a state where the presidential margin was decided by five points or less. The race for Scott’s first term, when he defeated Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by just 10,000 votes, was the closest Senate race of 2018.

In other 2024 news:

Zeldin out: Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin, fresh off a closer-than-expected defeat in the New York governor’s race, said Wednesday he wouldn’t run to lead the Republican National Committee, but criticized the RNC’s current chair, Ronna McDaniel. 

Stamp of approval: Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel defended mail-in voting and early voting during a Fox News interview Tuesday, breaking with former President Donald Trump who has falsely claimed voting by mail is rife with fraud, per NBC News’ Henry J. Gomez. An RNC spokesman added that, in those comments, “we were not talking about the former president.” 

Nebraska Senate: Outgoing GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts confirmed Tuesday that he will seek an appointment to the Senate when GOP Sen. Ben Sasse leaves the chamber to lead the University of Florida. 

Youngkin’s next move?: Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin is “quietly” considering a run for president in 2024, per the Associated Press. And he faces a key test as he navigates the next legislative session. 

Building a bench: Politico reports on how the young class of governors Democrats just elected will play an important role in their party’s future.   

ICYMI: What else is happening in the world

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol is expected to make criminal referrals to the Justice Department, Chairman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., said Tuesday.

Police officers who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6 received Congressional Gold Medals on Tuesday. At the ceremony, family members of deceased U.S. Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick refused to shake GOP leaders’ hands.

The Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday in a case that could upend election law by giving more power to state legislatures. 

The state of Maryland banned agencies from using TikTok and other Chinese and Russian products following NBC News’ report on Chinese hackers who stole millions in Covid benefits.