Black Friday Crowds Shrink as Cyber Shopping Strengthens Hold on U.S.

The day after Thanksgiving, best known as Black Friday, has served as the unofficial marker for the beginning of the holiday shopping season for generations.

But following two years marred by COVID-related capacity and proximity restrictions, as well as the ever-growing convenience of online shopping, the phenomenon that is Black Friday has undergone a major transformation.

This month, data published by the National Retail Federation indicated that 166.3 million Americans plan on shopping between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, with Black Friday expected to attract nearly 115 million shoppers alone.

The group also reported that 67 percent of holiday shoppers in the U.S. plan on patronizing physical retailers, marking a 3 percent increase from 2021.

Despite that increase, however, the number of Americans expected to make in-person purchases this weekend pales in comparison to 124 million in-store shoppers between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday in 2019.

The total number of Americans expected to make purchases during that five-day period is also much smaller than in 2019, when nearly 190 million consumers took advantage of holiday bargains, both online and in stores.

Shopper hit the Newport Mall on Black Friday in Jersey City, New Jersey. The day after Thanksgiving is traditionally regarded as the start of the holiday shopping season, with shoppers flocking to stores and online for bargains, but with consumer confidence down, retailers braced for a considerably slower Black Friday this year. Kena Betancur/Stringer via Getty Images

High inflation rates and fears for the future are largely to blame.

This year, American households are expected to spend $1,455 on holiday-related purchases, marking an $8 decrease from 2021, according to Deloitte’s 2022 Holiday Retail Survey.

However, while households are expected to spend slightly less in 2022, a recent CNBC/SurveyMonkey poll of 3,500 adults revealed that 67 percent of Americans are concerned about their ability to make the holiday purchases they want because of current inflation rates.

The survey also revealed that 69 percent of Americans are worried about making significant holiday purchases due to the possibility of an economic recession in 2023.

Unsurprisingly, distress over inflation and economic recession was highest among the lowest income brackets, with a whopping 78 percent of households earning less than $50,000 per year expressing concern over holiday spending power.

Another potential explanation for a diminished Black Friday rush is timing.

This year, consumer financial services website Bankrate reported that roughly half of shoppers planned on making holiday purchases by Halloween.

Broken down, Bankrate’s 2022 Winter Holiday Shopping Survey showed that 8 percent of holiday shopping was expected to begin in August, 11 percent in September and 18 percent in October.

Twenty-eight percent of holiday shoppers surveyed by Bankrate said they’d start shopping in November, while just 9 percent said they’d wait to make last-minute purchases in December.

With holiday shoppers preparing earlier and earlier each year, many retailers have begun implementing in-person sales well before Black Friday and online deals before Cyber Monday.

Combined with fewer stores offering advance shopping hours on Thanksgiving night, and exponential growth throughout the parcel delivery industry, there is decreasing incentive for shoppers to brave the storm that is Black Friday.

As overzealous mall crowds and lines wrapped around department store parking lots long served as beacons for bargain hunters across the U.S., the ease of online shopping—as well as the need for security in the face of financial uncertainty—is seemingly more enticing than ever before.

Newsweek has reached out to Bankrate for comment.