Caesar’s better bettor: Mizzou’s nail-biting victory means much more than a bowl game to some

For some college football fans, the Battle Line was drawn at the betting windows rather than on the football field on Friday in Columbia, Missouri.

While Missouri had a bowl berth on the line when it played Arkansas for the Battle Line trophy, the result of the game also would determine the outcome of bets on how many regular-season games MU would win this year.

The preseason wagering line for Mizzou was 5 or 5½, depending on the sportsbook. The Tigers went into the contest, their finale, at 5-6. So a lot was on the line for those folks holding tickets. 

Bet the over? You sure were rooting for the Tigers.

Have the under? “Wooo Pig Sooie” was the battle cry of the day as you were hoping to win your bet if you had 5½, or get your money back if you had 5.

It was a tense run all afternoon for those bettors, as Mizzou hung on to prevail 29-27 in a scintillating back-and-forth contest. The Tigers won four of their last six games to hit the over.

Cup crazy

Saudi Arabia’s victory Tuesday over Argentina was one of the biggest upsets in the history of the World Cup, which has been around since 1930 and is the planet’s biggest sporting event.

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The Saudi’s were +2,200 on the moneyline at FanDuel before the game, which means a $100 bet would bring at profit of $2,200. After the Argentinians took a 1-0 lead, the odds of Saudi Arabia winning zoomed to as high as +10,000 at FanDuel — a successful $100 wager would level the bettor ahead $10,000.

To put this upset in perspective, Argentina had not lost in its last 36 matches and was expected to breeze against the Saudis, the world’s 51st-ranked team. The Argentinians opened the tourney one of the favorites to win the title, sharing second place with France, England, Spain. Brazil was the top choice. Saudi Arabia was a mere afterthought. 

Somehow Saudi Arabia won, 2-1, believed to be the largest upset in the esteemed event since the United States stunned powerful England 1-0 in 1950. That American team that had five St. Louisans on its roster, including goalie Frank Borghi — who knocked a header wide of the net in the second half to help preserve the win. Harry Keough, Gino Pariani, Frank (Peewee) Wallace and Charley Colombo were the other St. Louisans on the squad of semi-pros who had only played together once before the tournament began. (Odds on that contest were not available.)

The game Tuesday was just the first of three group-stage matches for the Saudis and Argentinians, and they still can advance — or be done — when the opening round ends next week.

They both play Saturday. Saudi Arabia again a big underdog, this time to Poland. As of Friday afternoon at three walk-in sportsbooks in the St. Louis area, a $100 bet would cash for a $400 profit at DraftKings (East St. Louis), $410 at FanDuel (Collinsville) and $430 at Barstool (Argosy in Alton).

Argentina faces Mexico, and again is favored. To win $100, a bettor would have to risk $182 at Barstool, $185 at DraftKings or $190 at FanDuel.

• The Americans still have not won in the tourney. But they haven’t lost, either. Their scoreless draw Friday with England was their second tie, and they have one game left in the group stage — against Iran on Tuesday, when they are a slight favorite. The U.S. is a minor choice to make it into the next round: -112 at Argosy, -125 at DraftKings and -135 at FanDuel.

Stat of the week

The Giants’ touchdown and ensuing extra point with 12 seconds left in their contest against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day was meaningless in terms of the outcome on the field, a game the Cowboys won 28-20. But it was oh-so-important for point-spread bettors.

Dallas closed as a 10-point favorite at many sportsbooks, so the ’Boys went from winners to losers at the wagering windows. (Adding insult for Dallas bettors — the Cowboys’ Brett Maher missed on a 46-yard field-goal attempt with 1:17 to go that would have made that late TD moot to bettors.)

Earlier in the day, the Bills — who were favored by 8½ — needed a late field goal to beat the Lions.

According to figures from @Bet_Labs, the covers by those underdogs ran the point spread record this season of NFL ’dogs getting 7 or more points to 25-13-1. That’s 65.8%, a huge figure in the wagering world.

By the way, three underdogs fit that criteria on Sunday, all on the road, and a couple whoppers. The consensus line had the Saints getting 9 against the 49ers, the Texans +14 against the Dolphins and the Rams being given 15½ against the Chiefs.

Looking ahead

College football’s regular season doesn’t end until Saturday, but some of next weekend’s conference championship game matchups already have been set and betting lines have been posted. (Consensus spreads listed:)

SEC: Georgia by 15½ over Louisiana State, in Atlanta.

ACC: Clemson by 7½ over North Carolina, in Charlotte.

Mountain West: Boise State by 5½ over Fresno State, in Boise, Idaho.

MAC: Toledo by 4½ over Ohio, in Detroit

Weekend picks

We went 2-1 last week to stand at 15-20, and gained three units, but still are down 16 for the season (selections can range from one • to five •••••). This week’s choices, using the odds that were most favorable Friday afternoon among the area sportsbooks: 

Illinois at Northwestern, 2:30 p.m. Saturday: If you want to bet this one in Illinois, you’ll have to go to one of the physical sportsbooks because mobile wagering on in-state college teams is prohibited. But it might be worth the trip. Both are ground-oriented, ball-control teams that play a lot of low-scoring games.

The Wildcats’ last three contests have averaged 29 combined points for both teams, and three of the Illini’s last four have averaged 36 (excluding a rare wild one against Purdue, and that wasn’t really that wild by today’s college football standards — 55 combined points). The over/under for this one is low, but look for a grind-it-out affair in the battle for the Land of Lincoln trophy. Under 38 (Argosy, DraftKings). •••

Notre Dame at Southern California, 6:30 p.m. Saturday: We’ve recently cashed a couple same-game parlays, in which the lines can be manipulated — of course at different odds from the traditional numbers, and all legs must hit in order to win. We’ll take another shot here. Both offenses are firing. In their last five games, the Fighting Irish have scored at least 35 points and the Trojans have been no worse than 41. Notre Dame has the better defense — it shut out Boston College last week — but the Eagles’ offense is lackluster overall. And ND allowed Navy to score 32 the week before that.

Here we go: USC over 13½ points in the first half, USC over 26½ points in the full game, Notre Dame over 20½ for the full game and the combined score for both teams over 56½. Same-game parlay (just over even money, DraftKings). •••• 

Bengals at Titans, noon Sunday: Tennessee averages 14 points in the first half this year, Cincy gives up 13 before intermission. All the Titans have to do is score a TD and kicked a field goal to cover this number. Titans over 9½ first-half points (-135) ••

Dave Matter brings you the latest updates from the Mizzou sports scene.