What happens if a Nato country is attacked by Russia?

North Macedonian soldiers mark the anniversary of their Nato membership. (Reuters)

World leaders including Rishi Sunak have met for an emergency meeting after a missile fell in eastern Poland on Tuesday night, killing two people, and Moscow hit Ukraine with dozens of “barbaric” strikes.

The explosion in the village of Przewodow, has raised concerns of Russia’s war becoming a wider conflict – either by a deliberate act of escalation by the Kremlin or an accidental one.

Russia’s defence ministry has denied involvement and Western allies have said they are working to establish the facts – overnight President Joe Biden said the missile was unlikely to have been fired from Russia.

Nonetheless, the Polish ministry said foreign minister Zbigniew Rau had summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations” of the incident.

What next for Nato?

Nato ambassadors are set to meet today at the request of Poland on the basis of the alliance’s Article 4, which states that members of the alliance “will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened”.

The entrance board to the village of Przewodow in Poland where a missile fell and killed two people. (Getty)

Article 4 does not mean Nato will undertake armed conflict with Russia – but Article 5 states that an attack on a member is considered an attack on all members and could ultimately lead to military action.

The principle of collective defence is the keystone of Nato, with Article 5 stating that an “armed attack” against one member sets in motion the possibility of collective self-defence.

However, Nato would only take “such action as it deems necessary” – and while that includes the use of armed force it would not automatically result in military action.

Is Russia to blame for the explosion in Poland?

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky decried the missile strike as “a very significant escalation” of his country’s war with Russia.

However, reports this morning suggest that an initial investigation found that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.

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President Biden said the “trajectory” of the missile indicated it did not originate from Russia.

US president Joe Biden cast doubt on the missile that fell in Poland being Russian in origin. (Getty)

“There is preliminary information that contests that,” he said. “I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate it, but it is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

While the investigation may yet find that the missiles did not originate from Russia, it nevertheless does highlight how the war in Ukraine could become an armed, global conflict.

Downing Street has so far not commented on the new reports, saying that the facts needed to be established first.

Watch: Biden says it is ‘unlikely’ a missile strike in Poland was fired from Russia

What is Nato?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a political and military alliance of 30 countries.

Nato was set up in 1949 to protect members against the Soviet Union, with 12 nations initially signing up to the North Atlantic Treaty in Washington DC.

These countries were the US, Canada, the UK, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal.

Read more:

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Nato’s stated political objectives are to “promote democratic values”, “enable members to consult and cooperate on defence and security-related issues”, and to “prevent conflict”.

The organisation says it “is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes”, but if diplomacy fails it will use its military power “to undertake crisis-management operations”.

Ukraine crisis assets Ukraine crisis. Map of NATO deployments in Europe

Nato has four multinational battalion-size battlegroups, or some 4,000 soldiers, led by Canada, Germany, the UK and the US in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Nato reinforced the existing battlegroups and agreed to establish four more multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia

The troops serve as a “tripwire” for Nato’s response force to come in quickly and bring more US troops and weapons from across the Atlantic.

Nato is a political and military alliance of 30 countries. (Reuters)

Russian president Vladimir Putin sees Nato as a threat. (Reuters)

An attack against one Nato member is considered an attack against all of them. (Reuters)

What happens if a Nato country is attacked?

The collective defence clause of Nato’s founding treaty – Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – is a provision that means an attack against one member is considered an attack against all of them.

This is a fundamental part of Nato and why it says it is a defensive alliance.

Nato says military operations are carried out under Article 5 or a United Nations mandate, alone or in co-operation with other countries and international organisations.

Last month, in direct response to the conflict in Ukraine, Nato said: “Allies are committed to deploying robust and combat-ready forces on the Alliance’s eastern flank. The eight battlegroups demonstrate the strength of the transatlantic bond and the Alliance’s solidarity, determination and ability to respond to any aggression.

“Many activities undertaken by Allies nationally also contribute to increased Allied activity in the eastern part of the Alliance. In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Allies have sent additional ships, planes and troops to NATO territory in eastern Europe, further reinforcing the Alliance’s deterrence and defence posture.”

Crucially, Ukraine is not a member of Nato and therefore the alliance is not treaty-bound to defend it.

Police officers work at the site after explosions in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. (Reuters)

US president Joe Biden has said he will not send American or allied troops to fight Russia in Ukraine.

However, Kyiv is a close partner and was promised eventual membership of the alliance.

The 30-member Nato works with Ukraine to modernise its armed forces.

Sweden has applied to join Nato along with Finland – which shares a border with Russia – with Nato hoping the expansion will boost its eastern Europe defences.

However, alliance members Hungary and Turkey are currently blocking the accession.

World leaders attend an emergency meeting to discuss the missile strike on Polish territory near the border with Ukraine on the side line of the G20 leaders’ summit. (Getty)

Which countries are in Nato, and what date did they join?

1949: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the UK, the US.

1952: Greece, Turkey

1955: Germany

1982: Spain

1999: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland

2004: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia

2009: Albania, Croatia

2017: Montenegro

2020: North Macedonia

Why does Putin see Nato as a threat?

Since the Cold War ended, Nato has expanded eastwards by taking in 14 new countries, including the states of the former Warsaw Pact and the three Baltic nations that were once in the Soviet Union.

Russia sees this as a threatening encroachment towards its borders and continues to say it was a betrayal of Western promises at the start of the 1990s – something Nato denies.

Ukraine is not a Nato member but has a promise dating from 2008 that it will eventually get to join.

Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak attend an meeting of leaders at the G20 summit after a missile landed in Poland near the Ukrainian border. (Getty)

Since toppling a pro-Russian president in 2014, Ukraine has become closer politically to the West, staged joint military exercises with Nato and taken delivery of weapons.

Kyiv and Washington saw these as legitimate moves to bolster Ukraine’s defence after Russia seized the Crimea region in 2014 and provided backing to separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Putin believes Ukraine’s growing ties with the alliance could make it a launchpad for Nato missiles targeted at Russia.

He said Russia needs to lay down “red lines” to prevent that.

Vladimir Putin has threatened ‘global catastrophe’ is Nato troops enter armed conflict with Russia. (Getty)

Last month, Putin said Nato troops on the ground fighting the Russian army would be “a very dangerous step that could lead to a global catastrophe”.

In a recent address, Putin also said: “In Nato documents, our country is officially and directly declared the main threat to North Atlantic security. And Ukraine will serve as a forward springboard for the strike.”

But his demands that Ukraine drop its long-term goal of joining the Atlantic military alliance have been repeatedly rebuffed by Kyiv and Nato states.