Cincinnati vs. East Carolina prediction, odds: 2022 Week 11 college football picks, bets from proven model

Nippert Stadium presents an appetizing American Athletic Conference matchup on Friday evening. The Cincinnati Bearcats host the East Carolina Pirates in a battle between top-tier teams in the conference. Cincinnati is 4-1 against AAC foes and 7-2 overall this season, with the Bearcats winning 18 of the last 19 games overall against conference opponents. ECU is 6-3 overall and 3-2 in conference action this season.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bearcats as 6-point favorites at home for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 52 in the latest East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds. Before making any Cincinnati vs. East Carolina picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on ECU vs. Cincinnati and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college football odds and betting lines for Cincinnati vs. ECU:

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bearcats vs. East Carolina Pirates

Why East Carolina can cover

With Holton Ahlers at the helm and plenty of firepower at skill positions, the Pirates are difficult to defend. East Carolina is averaging 467.2 total yards per game and 296.8 passing yards per game, and sit atop the conference in several passing categories. East Carolina has only five interceptions and 12 sacks allowed in nine games, and Ahlers is one of the best players in the conference. He has thrown for 2,632 yards and 18 touchdowns, posting a 155.2 passer rating for the season and completing almost 72% of his passes against AAC opponents. Ahlers has more than 12,800 passing yards and 87 touchdown passes in his career, and he is the centerpiece of an offense that leads the AAC with a 50.8% third down rate. 

Running back Keaton Mitchell is also a standout, leading the AAC in rushing with 863 yards and producing nine touchdowns with 7.1 yards per carry. East Carolina also has two of the top five receivers in the AAC in Isaiah Winstead and CJ Johnson, and the Pirates are also in the top four of the conference in scoring defense, rushing defense, and yards allowed per rush attempt.

Why Cincinnati can cover

The Bearcats have been the class of the AAC for quite some time. Cincinnati is 18-1 in its last 19 games against AAC opponents, keying a stretch of 20 wins in the last 23 games overall. The Bearcats are averaging 33.2 points per game on offense, providing an intriguing baseline, and quarterback Ben Bryant threw for 299 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Cincinnati’s defense is also quite strong, including top-three marks in scoring defense (21.0 points allowed per game) and total defense (322.6 yards allowed per game). 

The Bearcats are especially dynamic against the pass, yielding only 180.9 yards per game and 11 passing touchdowns. Cincinnati leads the AAC in yards per pass attempt allowed, sacks, passer rating allowed and completion rate allowed, with senior linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. operating as the most impactful defender in the conference this season. Pace Jr. leads the way with 96 tackles and 8.0 sacks, sitting atop the AAC in both categories.

How to make East Carolina vs. Cincinnati picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, with both teams projected to throw for more than 235 yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins East Carolina vs. Cincinnati? And which side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the East Carolina vs. Cincinnati spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.