Blue Jays mailbag: Will the Jays extend Matt Chapman?

With the World Series in full swing, the start of Major League Baseball’s off-season is just around the corner.

Immediately upon conclusion of the Fall Classic, teams will be permitted to resume making trades. Five days later, free agents can begin signing deals, even though for many it will take weeks, if not months, to find suitable offers in what has become a drawn-out process.

On the heels of the World Series are the annual General Managers’ meetings, set to begin Monday in Las Vegas. That means the off-season hot stove is about to heat up in a big way, which creates a lot of talking points for this week’s edition of the Blue Jays mailbag.

As a friendly reminder, questions for the mailbag should be submitted to bluejaysmailbag@gmail.com, or by reaching out to me on Twitter @GregorChisholm. The following questions have been edited for length and grammar:

You keep talking about payroll budget concerns with the Jays, which I find a bit confusing. If Rogers can afford to spend $300 million to make the fan experience “better” at the dome, it seems to me that they have plenty of money to throw around getting better pitching, outfielders and left-handed bats. Isn’t this a choice on Rogers’ part and not that they don’t have enough money? I do understand that spending money like the Yankees, Dodgers and Mets is no guarantee of success, but I think the Jays must improve in these areas to continue to be competitive.

David, Kamloops, B.C.

David raises some valid points. If Rogers doesn’t have the deepest pockets of any MLB owner, it at least ranks within the top five. This is a multibillion-dollar company that can easily afford to pay the players whatever it wants. But just because ownership has the resources to become a competitive balance tax (a.k.a. luxury tax) team, doesn’t mean it will.

Whenever “budget concerns” are mentioned in my columns, it’s not a reference to Rogers struggling to pay the bills, it’s specific to how much money the front office has been given to spend. Could the organization afford a bigger budget? Of course, but Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins must operate within the guidelines set by their bosses.

The way it was explained to me is that if the Jays were to sign another George Springer or Kevin Gausman, they would have to shed salary elsewhere to make it happen. While that makes this off-season a lot different than the two that came before, it doesn’t mean the money has completely dried up. Per Cot’s Baseball contracts, the Jays had a payroll of $171 million (U.S.) this season and it figures to at least be north of $190 million in 2023, but the exact figure remains unknown.

Love the mailbag and Jays discussions especially in the off-season. The Jays need a left-handed bat who plays centre field. George Springer needs to move to a corner. Would the perfect fit be Bryan Reynolds (who is a switch hitter)? How likely would it be for the Blue Jays to acquire him?

Todd, Minneapolis

Reynolds indeed would be a perfect fit on the Jays, but then again, almost every team could claim the same. The 27-year-old is a solid defender, has some pop with a combined 51 home runs over the last two seasons and he draws a lot of walks. He’s under club control for another three years and if he becomes available this winter, it’s a lock the Jays would be interested.

The issue is that the Jays likely only have enough pieces in their minor-league system to pull off one major deal like this. While balancing out the lineup is a priority, the bigger need can be found in the starting rotation. Acquiring someone like Reynolds would almost assuredly involve parting with Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno, and one of those guys might need to be shopped for an arm.

So yes, Reynolds would slot very nicely into the Jays lineup and his name is worth monitoring, but there are a lot of moving pieces here and he’s just one part of it.

I subscribe to the Star and enjoy your work. Reading your article about Jays and specifically Addison Barger. I have never seen him play live, I only have watched tape. But why does Barger get lumped in with Otto Lopez and Leo Jimenez? Barger has excelled at each level, bats left-handed AND has power. Admittedly there is some swing and miss, but that style seems to populate MLB, with guys like Kirk who draw more walks than K’s becoming unicorns.

Mike Davies

Much like you, there are a lot of people inside the Jays organization who have high hopes for Barger. The 22-year-old advanced through three levels of the minors this season, slashing .308/.378/.555 with 26 homers and 91 RBIs across 124 games. There are still some questions about whether he projects more as a third baseman, or second baseman, but there’s a lot of internal belief in his bat.

So why does he get lumped in with prospects like Lopez and Jimenez? It’s because Barger doesn’t have enough of a track record to join the top tier. Moreno and Orelvis Martinez have long been ranked within the top 100 of most mainstream prospects lists while promising lefty Ricky Tiedemann made the jump more than a year ago. Barger isn’t quite there, at least not yet, but the Jays like him a lot and he’ll be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid exposure in the Rule 5 draft.

Everyone agrees, the Jays need to become more left-handed. Question — Which regular player, or players, are most likely to go to open spots in the lineup?

@myleshiggins

The only spot where the Jays could insert a left-handed bat without making changes elsewhere is at designated hitter and even that would present some challenges. Springer isn’t getting any younger and Guerrero will require time off his feet, so committing to a full-time DH doesn’t seem realistic, but it could work if that player occasionally plays the field as well.

Inserting a lefty bat elsewhere requires more creativity. The most likely scenario would be shopping outfielders Teoscar Hernandez or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who are entering their final year before free agency. Second base is another possibility, but it’s harder to fill that spot with a plus bat so the combination of Santiago Espinal and Whit Merrifield figure to stick around for another year.

How likely do you envision a possible Matt Chapman extension?

@Peterrossignol

Not likely at all. Chapman is one year away from free agency and one thing we know about agent Scott Boras is that he rarely signs deals when his players are that close to hitting the open market. I’d expect Chapman to play out the final year of his deal before exploring options.

Even next winter, a long-term deal doesn’t seem likely. Guerrero and Bichette will be two years away from free agency when Chapman hits the open market and the Jays will want to make sure they have enough resources to offer lucrative contracts. There also could be two holes to fill in the outfield by then, which increases the likelihood of a prospect like Martinez or Barger stepping in at third the following year to preserve cash. I’ve long thought of Chapman as a guy who would only be in a Jays uniform for two seasons.

We’ve already seen the Jays linked to players like Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara. Is there anyone who hasn’t been mentioned yet who you think is a realistic fit?

Kevin, Moncton, N.B.

First, any reports that you might be reading right now are based on speculation and nothing else. The World Series isn’t over yet, which means teams still aren’t permitted to make trades and free agency is still at least another week away. This is the calm before the storm.

But one player I haven’t seen linked to the Jays who I think would be a good fit is outfielder Michael Brantley. The Jays reportedly made a strong run at Brantley two years ago before he re-signed with the Astros and he’ll be available on another short-term deal, especially after an injury plagued season in Houston. Brantley is 35 but his numbers remained strong until he went down with a shoulder injury. He could start at DH while splitting time with Gurriel in left if he’s deemed too expensive for the Astros.

Any chance the Jays make a qualifying offer to Ross Stripling? If he accepts, they fill a hole in the rotation. If he doesn’t, they get a draft pick. Seems like a win-win?

Asher, Waterloo

I think it’s safe to say that Stripling is as good as gone. It seems highly unlikely that the Jays would extend a $19.65 million qualifying offer to Stripling because if they do, he’ll probably accept and that’s more than they would be willing to pay for one year of his services.

The Jays could instead opt to offer Stripling a multi-year deal with a lower annual salary, much like they did with lefty Steven Matz last off-season, but the seven-year veteran figures to get more elsewhere. The Jays are in the market for a starter, and I could be wrong here, but during the Jays’ end-of-season media availability, Atkins seemed to be speaking with a sense of inevitability about Stripling’s departure. I highly doubt he’s back in 2023.

May you share in your column when the 2023 start times will be released.

Chris McDonald

The Jays are expected to announce the start times for next year’s home games later this month when they launch their annual ticketing campaign. In February, MLB will officially announce all start times for the upcoming season.

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