Lula beats Bolsonaro to Brazil presidency by a hair’s breadth after bitterly contested election

Brazil’s left-wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has promised to unite a divided country after his historic victory over the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a bitterly contested election.

The final result gave Lula 50.90 per cent of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 49.10 per cent.

“They tried to bury me alive, but here I am,” Lula, 77, told an ecstatic crowd of his supporters in a Sao Paulo hotel shortly after the result was confirmed.

Bolsonaro and Lula cast their votes in second round of elections

His victory represents one of the most spectacular comebacks in modern political history. Lula, who was first elected president in 2002, spent over a year and a half in jail in 2018-19 after being sentenced for corruption. His convictions were later annulled, clearing his way to stand for office for what he promises will be one last time.

“I will govern for 215 million Brazilians, and not just for those who voted for me,” he said in his victory speech. “There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, one great nation.”

He also pledged to reverse what have widely been seen as the destructive policies of Bolsonaro towards the environment.

“Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting all our biomes, especially the Amazon forest,” he said.

World leaders were quick to recognise the result. President Biden said in a statement: “I send my congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on his election to be the next president of Brazil following free, fair and credible elections.”

Emmanuel Macron, the French president who had directly clashed with Bolsonaro over his climate policies, also congratulated Lula and said the result opened “a new page” in the nation’s history.

The Chinese government, via its embassy, sent its “warmest congratulations”. Gustavo Petro, who became Colombia’s first ever leftist president after his election this summer, simply tweeted: “Long live Lula.”

President Putin of Russia said in a telegram to Lula: “Please accept my sincere congratulations… the election results have confirmed your impressive political authority. I hope that through joint efforts we will pursue the development of constructive Russo-Brazilian co-operation in all areas.” Putin pointedly did not send a message to Rishi Sunak when he became prime minister last week, as Britain is considered an “unfriendly country” by Moscow.

Emotions ran high for Lula supporters in Brasilia, the capital

SERGIO LIMA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

In contrast, there was no comment or concession speech from Bolsonaro, who was understood to be watching the results with members of his immediate family in the private quarters of the presidential palace in the capital, Brasilia. Brazilian TV reported late on Sunday night that the president had gone to bed and would possibly make a statement in the morning.

The exceptionally close result confirmed the polarised state of the country’s politics, something which had become clearly apparent during months of acrimonious campaigning as the two ideological enemies flung insults at each other.

Bolsonaro caricatured Lula as “a thief” and a “communist” who should be returned to prison. Lula dubbed Bolsonaro a reckless and dishonest authoritarian who could destroy Brazil’s democracy if given a second mandate.

The momentous day in the world’s fourth-largest democracy had begun with Bolsonaro, 67 — wearing a T-shirt in the yellow and green colours of the national flag — casting his vote as polls opened at a military school in his home city of Rio de Janeiro. “God willing, we will be victorious,” he said.

Lula voted in the Sao Paulo suburb of Sao Bernardo do Campo, where the former shoe-shiner began his political career as a trade unionist in the 1970s.

The close result can only have added to the frustration of Bolsonaro supporters

UESLEI MARCELINO/REUTERS

Bolsonaro has repeatedly made claims of electoral manipulation, raising fears that he might yet not accept the result. Before the first round on October 2 he suggested that Brazil’s election machines could be hacked, but failed to provide evidence. More recently he alleged that hundreds of radio stations had not broadcast his campaign advertisements.

“The whole system is against me,” he claimed during a final, bad-tempered television debate with Lula on Friday.

Lula and his wife, Rosangela, seal victory with a kiss

NELSON ALMEIDA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Voting is compulsory in Brazil, although fines for not complying are minimal. This election had an abstention rate of approximately 20 per cent, one of the highest in recent years. Around five million people cast blank or null votes, indicating deep dissatisfaction with both candidates.

“I would like someone with a more current and more modern model of government, not these old and outdated policies that are just the same old thing again,” Leandro Mosca, 32, a designer, told the Times.

Lula had mostly campaigned on his record in office from 2003-11, which coincided with a commodities boom, the windfall from which he used to lift millions out of poverty. He will be attempting to repeat that in what will be his third term, albeit in far more difficult global economic conditions.

He will also face the challenge of a congress that is packed with supporters of Bolsonaro, a reality that is likely to force him to seek compromise. Following governorship elections which were held concurrently with the presidential vote, three of Brazil’s most populous states, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, will be governed by Bolsonaro supporters.

Sunday’s result also represents another leftward shift in the Latin American political map. Once Lula is inaugurated in January, all the region’s big economies will be led by left-wing governments.

The defeated president has been one of the world’s more controversial leaders. Supported by the religious right, he pushed a pro-gun, anti-abortion agenda and has been broadly dismissive of a range of global threats, from the Covid-19 pandemic to climate change.

Sometimes labelled the “Trump of the Tropics”, he received an effusive endorsement from the former US president on the eve of Sunday’s vote. In a recorded video, Donald Trump urged Brazilian voters: “Don’t lose him.”

Some wonder whether the ousted president, like his North American ally, might be tempted to claim the election was rigged. “We might have some difficult days ahead,” Thiago de Aragão, a political analyst, said. “Bolsonaro will complain, some protesters will organise something.”

The Brazilian left’s conviction that the best man to defeat Bolsonaro was Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has paid off (Stephen Gibbs writes). This close result represents a quite extraordinary latest chapter in the life of the man who was born to abject poverty, made his way via trade union leadership to the presidency, then later was imprisoned for corruption, before having his convictions annulled, clearing the way for what has just transpired.

The satisfaction Lula must be feeling will be extreme, but he will also be well aware that this time round things will not be as easy as they were for his previous two presidential terms.

Although he may have defeated Bolsonaro, he has not extinguished the movement of Latin America’s most controversial leader, whose conservative message and depiction of his opponent as a criminal drew the support of almost 58 million voters.

There have even been doubts as to whether the incumbent president will accept the result. He most certainly will be lurking in the background in the coming years.

Assuming Bolsonaro goes quietly, Lula will take office on January 1 at the helm of a country which, like all its neighbours, is facing the challenges of the post-pandemic global economy.

He will have the support of those in the region and the world who are pleased to see the back of Bolsonaro, but it will not be an easy ride.