Auston Matthews’ trends and a secret to John Tavares’ start: Monday Morning Leafs Report

LAS VEGAS — John Tavares’ quick start to the season might be explained, at least in part, by a big change he made in the offseason.

After 15 years of working with renowned skating coach Dawn Braid — for the entirety of his NHL career in other words — Tavares turned to Paul Matheson, who joined the Leafs as a skating development consultant in the offseason.

Ahead of his 14th NHL season, the Leafs captain was intent on making gains in the speed department.

With Matheson’s help, Tavares worked to be lighter on his skates. Doing so, he explained recently, meant altering the way he pushed off the ice. He described some of the work as almost like running on skates and during his post-practice work on Sunday, it looked just like that.

He was light on his feet.

Indeed, Tavares looks a tad more explosive early on, as though he’s gained a half-step at age 32. That’s helped in what’s been a noticeably successful early effort at turning pucks over in the offensive zone, including on the power play.

That’s led to more scoring opportunities for the Leafs’ current leading scorer.

“He looks really comfortable — really comfortable with the puck, without the puck,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said after practice in Vegas on Sunday. “Defensively, he’s been really good … I just like a lot of things about his game.”

Tavares has done most of his business so far with the man advantage: Three goals and five points. He’s been a hunter around the net, striking twice with quick hands — once on a flip under the bar, another on a tip — over the weekend in Winnipeg.

It’s early, but encouragingly for the Leafs, Tavares’ shot rates are all up this season:

Tavares shot rates

Per 60 mins 2022-23 2021-22 2020-21

Shots

13.3

10.0

10.0

Attempts

18.8

18.0

16.4

HD Attempts

9.4

6.7

6.0

Expected goals

1.9

1.4

1.3

Goals

1.7

1.1

1.1

Shooting %

12.5

11.4

11.7

Note those high-danger attempts — 17 already, the second-highest figure in the league so far.

Most intriguing, looking ahead, is whether a slightly speedier Tavares can have a greater impact on the game at five-on-five.

Tavares has yet to score a five-on-five goal this season and has recorded only one such assist so far.

The Leafs are winning the same 55 percent of the expected goals as last season with their captain out there, but with slightly improved results defensively.

Sedins-like treatment has helped (68 percent offensive faceoff start percentage). Same with slightly better wheels.

“This offseason was really good for him,” Keefe noted after Tavares’ two-goal outing. “He was healthy all through it, and he could really push and really challenge and look to add to his game and improve his game.”

Five Points

1. Auston Matthews, Pt. 1: Auston Matthews is still stuck on one goal, but pretty clearly, the surge is coming.

Matthews’ shooting percentages in his first six NHL seasons: 14.3, 18.2, 14.7, 16.2, 18.5, 17.2.

So far this season: 3.6 percent.

Matthews has scored once on 28 shots.

Some bad luck? Obviously.

Until the Winnipeg game, Matthews also wasn’t generating the same calibre of looks around the net.

The two biggest green diamonds below came against the Jets in what was a resurgent performance from the Leafs’ No. 1 line:

Matthews has been just a little off in the early going. He’s missed the net on 12 of his 54 attempts (10 going wide) and has had a number of good looks blocked by dudes just getting in the way.

Of note: Matthews scored once in his first six games last season and finished with 60 goals (in 73 games).

Concern level: Low.

2. Auston Matthews, Pt. 2: Another early shot trend for Matthews: He’s getting few clean opportunities on the power play.

After six games, Matthews has attempted 13 shots on the power play, but hit the net only four times.

He’s yet to score on the power play after leading the team with 16 power-play goals last season. He did, however, make an extra effort to jump-start Tavares’ first power-play goal in Winnipeg and fired the shot that Tavares tipped on his second power-play goal in that same game against the Jets.

In the end, it doesn’t matter who scores the goals for the Leafs as long as, well, someone does. But obviously, creating better opportunities for the best shooter on the planet would help.

3. Auston Matthews, Pt. 3: One more noteworthy Matthews stat from the early-going: He’s winning fewer draws, just 48 percent so far.

Matthews hummed at over 56 percent last season, one of the top figures in the league.

The drop-off might be explained by the lower back issue Matthews appears to be playing his way through.

4. Healthy-ish: The Leafs came oh-so-close to disaster early last week.

It happened late at last Monday’s morning skate, ahead of a game against the Arizona Coyotes which Erik Kallgren was starting.

That meant extra work at the end of the skate for Ilya Samsonov, due for a night off. After taking shots from Nick Robertson and Wayne Simmonds, scratches that night for the Leafs, Samsonov came to the bench in discomfort.

He showed the medical trainer his left hand, just under the index finger, and winced in discomfort. He tried things out with his glove, looked uncomfortable, and quickly left the ice with the trainer.

GM Kyle Dubas followed him from the stands.

Fortunately for the Leafs, the news was positive: Samsonov was checked out and turned out to be fine. He won his next two starts and remains unbeaten as a Leaf.

5. New Leaf: Nicolas Aube-Kubel looks like someone still getting used to life with a new team — again.

The Leafs are his third team in the last two seasons. He was claimed off waivers by Colorado, after starting the year in Philadelphia, early on last season.

Aube-Kubel hadn’t played with anyone from the current group prior to joining the Leafs on a one-year contract worth $1 million this past summer. The Leafs’ training camp trip to Gravenhurst helped him get to know some of those new teammates, including his golfing crew of Jake Muzzin, Victor Mete and Kallgren.

“I really like the team,” he said.

Aube-Kubel, who will be scratched for a second straight game in Vegas, said he was still learning the tendencies of his new linemates with the Leafs — primarily David Kampf and Zach Aston-Reese. He’s been the team’s most physical player.

“It’s nice to get physical,” Aube-Kubel said. “I think we can add a little more offence to it. We haven’t had many shots or scoring chances.”

Aube-Kubel, to that point, has registered just one shot so far. With space, it can be a good one.

“It’ll be better in the next few games,” he said.

Bonus point: The Leafs’ most physical defenceman so far, with 19 hits: That would be Rasmus Sandin.

Things I Think I Think

1. The Leafs need Pierre Engvall to spark the bottom of the lineup offensively. He’s the one guy with Ilya Mikheyev potential, that is, a speedy scoring threat who might be capable of popping 20 goals.

Engvall signed a one-year deal worth $2.25 million in the summer after scoring 15 goals last season.

The foot injury he suffered before camp has him slightly behind his peers.

Engvall has yet to register a point this season, has mustered only seven shots and eight hits, and was hardly noticeable before he was scratched in Winnipeg. He’ll return to the lineup in Vegas.

If he can’t be a threat in the bottom six, the Leafs may eventually need to find someone who can.

2. I would not have predicted Simmonds and Kyle Clifford both playing games in October, and doing it while Aube-Kubel and Aston-Reese were healthy. Hard to deny the impact they made as a combo in Winnipeg. That earned them another outing against the Golden Knights. I remain skeptical that either can still help a playoff lineup, but maybe they can give the Leafs the odd something (edge, physicality, etc.) as depth wingers in the regular season (cap space willing).

Point of Curiosity

When is the top-line breakout coming?

I mentioned Matthews (repeatedly). But what about his line?

It speaks to the ridiculously high standard that Matthews, Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting set last year that their start to the year has been only so-so — even with their glitzy 61 percent expected goals mark.

Pick a little deeper and the eye test mostly matches the underlying numbers.

The line is generating zone time and opportunities (though not as many as before), but not converting. More surprising is what’s gone on at the other end, with Matthews, Marner and Bunting giving up more of substance than they did last year.

Last season: 44 shot attempts and 2.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes.

This season: 50 shot attempts and 2.4 expected goals against per 60 minutes.

That’s starting to change though.

The threesome was dominant in Winnipeg, if not on the scoresheet. Most noticeable were all the turnovers they forced and turned into offensive opportunities, a staple of the line’s success last season.

“It’s very prevalent in their game,” Keefe said. “They are elite at stealing the puck back, and the work ethic that they have to stay on top of the puck makes it really hard for opponents to get out (of the defensive zone). So when they really get going, they’re getting the puck back two, three, four times in the same shift and wearing down their opponent and getting them to lose their structure.”

The Leafs coach thought the Jets game was their best outing of the season in that regard.

Matthews, Marner and Bunting are all stuck on a single five-on-five goal each. They combined for 81 last year.

A flood is coming.

(Top photo: James Carey Lauder / USA Today)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and Hockey Reference