NFL player props: Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson goes Bear hunting
Stevenson #Stevenson
In 1975, “Saturday Night Live” premiered and introduced the world to the “Not Ready for Prime Time Players,” many of whom hailed from Chicago. In 2022, the Bears introduced us to another group of Chicagoans not ready for prime time. Chicago has scored just 17 combined points in their two island games this season, losing 27-10 to the Packers in Week 2 and falling 12-7 to the Commanders last Thursday night. The Bears are nine-point underdogs to the revenant New England Patriots on “Monday Night Football.” Here are three player props on BetMGM that I like in Monday’s game:
Rhamondre Stevenson over 62.5 rushing yards (-115)
Stevenson is one of the most exciting young running backs in the NFL. Built like a truck, but also blessed with the elusiveness of a Ducati motorcycle, only Javonte Williams had a higher percentage of broken and missed tackles forced in 2021. Stevenson looks even better this year, ripping off runs of at least 10 yards on 13.8% of his carries. Chicago’s defense ranks 31st in rushing success rate and also gives up the second-most rushing yards per game (163.0).
Should we be worried about backfield mate Damien Harris returning from a hamstring injury to carve into Stevenson’s workload? Harris is in the last year of his contract and is a rumored trade piece with eight days remaining before the trade deadline. Given the recurring nature of hamstring injuries, Harris’ track record of getting sidelined, and the possibility that he could soon be dealt away, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a light load for Harris tonight. Truth is, there’s enough bear meat on the bone for both backs to eat this evening, so I like this play even if we see a backfield split.
Stevenson has cashed this prop in each of his last four games.
Deatrich Wise Jr. over 3.5 tackles + assists (+110) Matt Judon over 3.5 tackles + assists (+125)
Galaxy brain time. At least one of these two New England defenders have hit this prop in every game this season. There have been two contests in which both of them went over this number. Chicago’s running play percentage is higher than Snoop Dogg, leading the league at 58.8% of plays. Add in the fact that no other quarterback has been sacked more times per game than Justin Fields, and what you end up with is a bevy of opportunities for the Patriots defensive line. At plus money, you’re freerolling if one of these hits. If both cash, you’re swimming like Scrooge McDuck.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, PFF, and CBS Sports.