FiveThirtyEight is picking Celtics to win 57 games and an NBA championship

BOSTON — The Celtics will tip off the new NBA season Tuesday night in Boston, and sit among the favorites to win it all come season’s end. One place in particular really likes the Celtics’ chances to bring home Banner 18 this season.

That would be FiveThirtyEight, which had the Celtics as the favorites to win it all late last season and throughout Boston’s run to the NBA Finals. (They were a little too high on the Celtics, remaining confident in the team’s chances all the way up to their Game 6 loss to the Warriors.) They are predicting Boston to win the most games in the regular season and are giving the C’s a 21 percent chance to end the year as NBA champs. They’re also projecting that Boston’s talented offense and dominant defense will give the team a plus-6.1 point differential per game, which is also the best in the league.

FiveThirtyEight has Boston’s projected record at 57-25, which would be a six-win improvement on last season’s record. It would be Boston’s best record since they went 55-27 during the 2017-18 regular season, and the first time that the team would win more than 55 games since 2008-09, when the C’s went 62-20.

The 57 wins would put the Celtics ahead of the Heat (51-31), the Hawks (51-31), the Raptors (50-32, and the 76ers (50-32) in the Eastern Conference. FiveThirtyEight has the Milwaukee Bucks, another favorite in some sports books, to finish 49-33, and the Brooklyn Nets to finish 45-37.

The Celtics also lead everyone in the NBA with a 33 percent chance of making the Finals, along with that 21 percent chance of winning it all. The Denver Nuggets are second in both categories at 25 percent and 13 percent, respectively, while the Memphis Grizzlies are third at 17 percent and eight percent. The 76ers (seven percent) and the Heat (six percent) are next in line in the East in terms of title favorites.

The defending champion Golden State Warriors — a heavy favorite in most spots — are the fourth-highest in the West at FiveThirtyEight with a 12 percent chance at making the Finals and only a six percent chance to repeat.

The expectations are sky high for the Celtics once again. The core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart are hungry and motivated to bring another banner home to Boston, and this feels like it’s their time. Winning is all that matters for a team that came up short against the Warriors just four months ago, and they enter the season as a determined bunch.

Boston will be tested early on with Robert Williams missing time and Joe Mazzulla navigating his way as a first-time NBA coach. But FiveThirtyEight has them pegged as the best team in basketball from start to finish, with the season ending with the Celtics winning their first title in 14 years.