NBA Finals 2020: Heat vs. Lakers Game 1 Odds, Props and Predictions

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

There has been plenty of talk in the buildup to the 2020 NBA Finals about it being LeBron James’ 10th appearance in the championship series. 

While James is worthy of the pre-Game 1 spotlight, he may not be the highest Lakers scorer in Wednesday’s clash with the Miami Heat. Anthony Davis outscored James for most of the playoffs and posted an average four points better than James in the Western Conference Finals. 

Jimmy Butler will get plenty of the spotlight on the Miami side, but when the ball is tipped, he could be overshadowed by players who have stepped into larger roles throughout the postseason. 

Player props could present the best value for Game 1, along with the projected over/under that could go over given the Game 1 form of both teams. 

NBA Finals Game 1 Odds

Miami (+166) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5; -198)

Over/Under: 217.5

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Predictions

Over 217.5

The Lakers are coming off a series in which an average of 222.8 points per game were scored. 

In Game 1 against Denver, the Western Conference champion put up its highest point total of the playoffs with 126. That performance occurred after the Lakers had five days off following the closure of their semifinal series with Houston. 

Miami had an even longer rest between its triumph over Milwaukee in the semifinal round and Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

In their opening win over Boston, the Heat posted 117 points in a game with the second-highest point total of the series. Miami enters the NBA Finals off its best offensive showing of the postseason, as it put up 125 points on the Celtics in Game 6. 

Standout defensive performances could take center stage at some point in the series, but with both teams with fresh legs, there is a chance Game 1 could produce the most points of the series.

Anthony Davis: Over 27.5 Points

Davis had five performances with 27 points or better in the five-game series with Denver. 

In three of those games, the Lakers big man eclipsed the 30-point threshold. In Game 1, he posted 37 points and 10 rebounds. In three Game 1s inside the bubble, Davis averaged 30 points per game and made double-digit field goals in two appearances. 

Davis’ best chance to record a high total could come in Game 1 as he throws everything at Bam Adebayo. 

Adebayo may need a game or two to adjust to the intricacies of Davis’ game in the paint, and that could lead to either easy baskets or trips to the foul line. 

The Miami big man committed four or more personal fouls in half of his games against Boston, and Davis went to the free-throw line over 10 times in three contests against Denver. 

If Davis works his way to the line in Game 1, it could aid his overall point total and cause the over to hit on the prop.

Goran Dragic: Over 18.5 Points

The over on Goran Dragic’s point total appears to be one of the safer wagers you can make for Game 1. 

The Miami guard has 10 games with over 20 points in the postseason, and he has no fewer than 24 points in three series openers. 

In the Game 1s against Indiana, Milwaukee and Boston, Dragic shot 9-of-20 from three-point range and made all 13 of his free-throw attempts. 

Dragic did have two games against Celtics in which he produced fewer than 15 points, but he has not had back-to-back games with that low of a total all postseason. After he put up 11 points in Game 3, Dragic rebounded with 22 points in Game 4.

His propensity to shoot from the beyond the arc should aid his final point total. He attempted at least five three-pointers in each of Miami’s playoff contests, except for Game 2 against Indiana when he shot four triples. 

If the trend of three-point shots continues and he remains perfect from the charity stripe in series openers, Dragic has a good chance to hit the 20-point mark.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Basketball Reference.