Stewart Mandel’s Big 12 predictions: Is it K-State’s year in a conference of change?

I honestly can’t remember a tougher conference to predict than the 2022 Big 12. The customary favorite, Oklahoma, is undergoing massive change. Last year’s title game participants, Baylor and Oklahoma State, both lost a bevy of key veterans (and in the Cowboys’ case, impactful defensive coordinator Jim Knowles).

And as you’ll see below, I’m highly skeptical of a Texas team whose hopes are riding on an entirely unproven quarterback in Quinn Ewers, extremely young offensive line and extremely suspect defense.

All of which opens the door for a potential surprise champ. Kansas State went 8-5 last season but finished 21st in SP+. Deuce Vaughn is incredible. Adrian Martinez is an upgrade a at quarterback. And the defense reminds me of Oklahoma State’s last year, led by a bunch of senior standouts like linebacker Daniel Green, defensive tackle Eli Huggins and cornerback Julius Brents.

And that’s not the only Kansas team I have showing significant improvement. All hail Lance Leipold!

Big 12 roundtable preview: Baylor’s biggest threat, K-State’s stars and what about Texas?

State of the Program: Baylor | Iowa State | Kansas | Kansas State | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | TCU | Texas | Texas Tech | West Virginia

Big 12

TEAM BIG 12 OVERALL

7-2

10-2

6-3

9-3

6-3

9-3

5-4

7-5

5-4

7-5

5-4

7-5

4-5

5-7

3-6

4-8

2-7

4-8

2-7

4-8

Championship game

Kansas State over Baylor

Five best nonconference games

Alabama at Texas (Sept. 10)

Oklahoma at Nebraska (Sept. 17)

West Virginia at Pitt (Sept. 1)

Iowa State at Iowa (Sept. 10)

Baylor at BYU (Sept. 10)

One sneaky-good one

Central Michigan at Oklahoma State (Sept. 3)

Last time the Chippewas came to town, they won on an absolutely wild Hail Mary/lateral play that resulted in the officials getting suspended and Mike Gundy claiming a win. This year, he’ll break his reloading defense against 2021 FBS rushing leader Lew Nichols III.

Player of the Year

Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn. Texas’ Bijan Robinson may be the bigger name, but the 5-foot-6, 176-pound Vaughn, a fellow junior, can be every bit the playmaker while doing so for a better team. If he stays healthy, 2,000 all-purpose yards is well within reach.

Runner-up: Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders.

Impact transfer

Kansas State QB Adrian Martinez. I wouldn’t be picking K-State to win the conference if I didn’t believe Martinez could boost the Wildcats’ offense. His turnover issues as Nebraska’s four-year starter are well-documented, but moving out of the dumpster fire in Lincoln to play for Chris Klieman should do wonders for Martinez’s consistency.

Runner-up: Oklahoma QB Dillion Gabriel (from UCF)

Impact freshman

Texas T Kelvin Banks Jr. Steve Sarkisian has no choice but to rely on some of his highly ranked offensive line signees from Day 1, and the 6-foot-5, 318-pound Banks appears to be the most physically prepared. Expect the five-star from Humble, Texas to endure some growing pains early but progress throughout the season.

Runner-up: Oklahoma RB Gavin Sawchuk

Coach most likely to get fired

West Virginia’s Neal Brown. But even that’s unlikely. WVU fans definitely want to see improvement in Brown’s fourth season after his first three teams went 11-15 in Big 12 play. But it’d probably have to be disastrous to justify paying a $12.7 million buyout.

Impact assistant

Texas Tech DC Tim DeRuyter. New head coach Joey McGuire could not have fared better in landing the well-traveled DeRuyter, who was Texas A&M’s DC in the Von Miller era and engineered a remarkable turnaround at Cal under Justin Wilcox.

Does a Big 12 team make the Playoff?

Not seeing it. The top three teams from last season — Baylor, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma — are replacing some of their most important leaders from last season.

Does a Big 12 team win the national championship?

When does Arch Manning arrive?

(Photo: Troy Taormina / USA Today)