‘He’s Kucherov without the puck’: Can Anthony Cirelli and his linemates contain Nathan MacKinnon?

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DENVER — When Dominic Moore was asked to join his ESPN colleagues in giving his Conn Smythe Trophy picks heading into the Stanley Cup Final, he went a bit off the board.

The retired NHL forward chose a player who has just one goal through the first three rounds and is an even plus-minus: Lightning forward Anthony Cirelli.

“People might laugh at that,” Moore said. “But it’s a legitimate option if Tampa wins again. (Nikita) Kucherov is going to be a leading scorer, or (Nathan) MacKinnon, but how do you stack that up against shutting down superstars each round? That seems to be pretty legit.”

Cirelli has been charged with the toughest matchups in the playoffs for the Lightning, whether it was defending Auston Matthews with Toronto, Aleksander Barkov with Florida and, most recently, suffocating the Mika Zibanejad top line with the Rangers. Cirelli’s line generated 23 high-danger chances in the series, allowing just five.

Now, Cirelli and his linemates Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel have arguably the most important task of this Stanley Cup Final: containing Nathan MacKinnon’s top line. How that goes could go a long way in whether Tampa Bay reaches their three-peat and dynasty status.

Even with Brayden Point returning, Cirelli could be the center who swings the series.

“With Point out, he had to do more,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said by phone Monday. “A lot of guys, because you have a Point, they have to take lesser roles. That’s how it works. When he’s out, they still win. Why is that? Because guys like Cirelli pick up the void.”

What makes the Cirelli line so successful in a shutdown role? Why is the MacKinnon line a unique challenge for the Cup champs? Let’s take a look.

The forecheck

If you look at the success of the Cirelli line in the Rangers series, a big part of it was how much time they spent in the offensive zone.

Why?

Cirelli sets the tone as the F1 — or first forechecker — and often either creates turnovers or pins opposing forwards in their zone. It’s not just his relentless work ethic and his speed. It’s his smarts.

“He’s Kucherov without the puck,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. “You watch him on the forecheck, he’s as good as I’ve seen. He just anticipates, his stick position, he knows if he’s not getting the puck, it’s not getting by him. Usually, he comes out with both. He’s like a fierce hound. He’s just on it. When you have that no-quit and relentless attitude, that helps.”

That’s quintessential Cirelli, and it showed all season with his Selke Trophy-caliber play. While he didn’t always have the offense to match, he had a positive impact in his own zone that made him so valuable to the Lightning. All the while, he was going up against some of the toughest competition in the league. At five-on-five, according to HockeyViz, Cirelli isolated impact limited opponents’ expected goal generation 15 percent more than the average skater would in his minutes when accounting for competition, zone starts and coaching.

That stellar defense has also carried into the playoffs, first against Toronto, and Leafs captain John Tavares noted in their first-round series how cerebral Cirelli was, how the Lightning center could “put himself in offensive player’s shoes and read the play.” Part of that comes from innate instincts, but there are also very few players who watch more video than Cirelli. He went home almost every night during that Leafs series and watched clips of all his shifts, trying to pick up tendencies.

“That’s the beauty of Cirelli. Not a lot of guys have the capability of thinking the offensive side,” said Dave Poulin, a former Selke Trophy winner. “I think we’ll see a 65-70 point guy in the next couple years when he gets more comfortable with what he does defensively. I always said that playing defense was like cleaning. It’s hard work, anyone can do it if they really wanted to. But it’s hard work and not fun and offense gets every advantage.

“These guys are so creative these days, think of who he has worked against — Matthews, Mitch Marner, Barkov, (Jonathan) Huberdeau, then (Artemi) Pararin, (Mika) Zibanejad. Those are all different kinds of offensive players. The versatility in Cirelli’s shutdown game is what stands out.”

What Poulin means is this: opponents have to be aware that Cirelli isn’t just a shutdown guy, that he can create chances the other way. He has a physical element, too. “He’ll beat you, or take the puck and go the other way,” Poulin said. “Or he’ll shut you down.”

While Cirelli isn’t lighting up the scoresheet, he’s not a one-dimensional player, either. When the Lightning deployed him in the regular season at five-on-five, they generated a higher rate of shots, relative to his teammates, while he was on the ice. That’s key in today’s game because the best defense can be a strong offense — battle the puck away from the opponent, and drive play up the ice.

That’s something Cirelli thrives at. He’s able to anticipate plays and intercept his opponents’ plays in all three zones, whether that’s to gain possession and move up the ice or extend time in his own zone. The pivotal forward won’t shy away from getting in front of shots or blocking passes or using his positioning to close a lane altogether. That’s been a standout this postseason as well.

“He’s got an engine that never stops and he’s just got a tremendous work ethic,” Point said. “He does all the little things right. He’s just a massive heart for our team.”

What makes Cirelli’s reads easier are the fact he knows linemate Brandon Hagel has a ton of speed too, and that there’s such great chemistry with Killorn, with whom he has played off and on since his NHL debut. That line was put together ahead of Game 3 against the Rangers, after Tampa Bay fell behind 2-0 in the series.

The Cirelli line has approximately 58 minutes of postseason play together at five-on-five, and what may jump out is the fact that the Bolts haven’t scored a single goal with them on the ice. But, they haven’t allowed one back either, which is important for a combination that was tasked with going up against Zibanejad and Chris Kreider in the Eastern Conference final.

Going below the surface highlights their impact even more. With this trio deployed, Tampa Bay only allowed a rate of 41.8 per 60 shot attempts against, which ranks in the top 10 among all combinations with at least 30 minutes of ice time in the playoffs. Not all shots are created equal, and the quality of those chances is just as important to consider — and obviously, it’s a five-player effort to suppress scoring chances. But Hagel-Cirelli-Killorn has been a defensive force in their time together, keeping their opponents to the outside and only giving up 1.26 expected goals against per 60, which is third-best in the postseason.

“What that line can do is bring tenacity, always pressuring the puck, always pressuring the next play, wherever it goes,” Moore said. “You have guys that can hold on and protect it. Especially Killorn, he can hold onto pucks down low in the offensive zone, kill time that way, make plays that way. Hagel and Cirelli on reloads, you can afford to forecheck aggressively when you know you have the speed to reload quickly. That line does that at an elite level.”

Reloads

What does reload mean? When Cirelli, an “F1,” goes into forecheck, and the opponent moves the puck around the boards or up ice, he’s able to quickly recover and get his stick in passing lanes. Same with Hagel or Killorn.

That adds more dimension to Cirelli’s game, and the Lightning overall, when this line is on the ice. Defensive efforts aren’t limited to just reading and reacting plays to take away shooting opportunities. There’s an effort to get the puck on their sticks and transition to offense.

Cirelli has maintained what made him strong in the regular season: he retrieves loose pucks and battles for possession under pressure to gain control. Those puck recoveries and board battles can wear down opponents, whether it’s back in their own end to keep teams to the outside, or in the Lightning’s offensive zone, where they stop any attempts to break out. Instead, they can keep plays alive and just keep cycling the puck.

That’s why the fact that they haven’t generated a goal yet together isn’t the biggest red flag. It’s not for a lack of trying. With Cirelli, Hagel, and Killorn on the ice, Tampa Bay does stick to their defensive strengths. But they don’t sit back, either; they push the pace of play. That’s led to a high rate of shots for (87.5 attempts per 60) and quality chances (4.3 expected goals for per 60) that stand out among the rest of the league. The scoring should come as long as they maintain this level of play — as long as these players can finish the chances they create.

At the very least, this trio is driving high-end opponents away from the areas of the ice where they’re so dangerous, and forcing them to play defense before they can even think about offense.

“They’re never really giving up numbers,” Moore said. “They can do that without having to sit back. That’s the key. You play against top players like MacKinnon, you play against defensemen like Cale Makar — if you can still play aggressively and go after them and not give up odd-man rushes, not give up too much time and space, that’s where you have success.”

Brind’Amour, a Selke Trophy winner, said he felt his Jordan Staal line did a good job on the Rangers’ Zibanejad line, but just took too many penalties. And that’s what Tampa Bay’s version with Cirelli did better. Former Lightning wing Ryan Callahan has compared Cirelli’s use of his stick to that of Pavel Datsyuk, how you wouldn’t see it but then he’d lift your stick and be off. Hagel has drawn 10 penalties vs. taking five, with Cirelli drawing two and taking one, and Killorn drawing five and taking two.

“(Cirelli’s) details and work ethic are unmatched,” Lightning forward Nick Paul said. “He does everything right, everything hard. When we need him to match up lines, he gives them nothing. Draws, PK, a big goal, he’ll step up and score. It’s no accident how he got where he is right now.”

“I’m amazed by how he’s able to forecheck and strip guys of the puck without taking penalties,” said Lightning assistant Jeff Halpern. “I think with his speed and however he’s able to manage that, it’s a huge asset for him and adds to the dimension of your planning to stop lines. If you’re able to get in on the forecheck and start there, it makes your job easier.”

Moore said Cirelli is the type of player whose anticipation plays a big role. “Knowing you can afford to commit with a bit of a more aggressive posture, knowing when you can’t, it’s a fine art,” Moore said. “And he’s really mastered it. There’s a risk-reward where every player has to decide how to play. If you get too conservative, it backfires. If you get too aggressive, it backfires. You have to dial that into a ‘T.’”

Cirelli can do that because he’s got trust in his linemates. He knows Killorn extremely well, but he’s pointed out that Hagel has made a quick and easy transition to the line. He’s relentless, always in the right spot and has the work ethic and hockey IQ to offer the support. The fact that Hagel has bought into this role, after scoring 21 goals in his first 55 games with the Blackhawks this season, makes him a great fit. Hagel’s been playing on an injured foot since blocking a shot in Game 2 of the Panthers series, and that kind of guts doesn’t go unnoticed in the dressing room.

“I like Western Canadiens and he fits the bill,” Halpern said. “He plays with a lot of dirt under his fingernails, so to speak, he gets into hard areas and he’s an easy guy to play with. Teammates understand he’s willing to do anything to win.”

The MacKinnon dilemma

Defense can be tricky to measure — especially for forwards. But we all notice it when it shuts down some of the best offensive talents in the league. That’s why Phillip Danault was such a star last postseason, before meeting the Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final. He shut down Matthews in Round 1, then the likes of Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor in Round 2. Then, the pivot went head-to-head with one of the best two-way wingers in the league in Mark Stone. That shutdown play gets noticed when it stops offensive dynamos from thriving.

That holds true this year with Cirelli.

In Round 1, he saw a heavy dose of Matthews. In Round 2, it was Barkov. But it was Round 3 where that shutdown play really shined, while matched against Zibanejad for approximately 60 five-on-five minutes. In that time, Tampa Bay had the shot advantage, 92 attempts to just 48 against, and doubled their scoring chances, 52-26. The Rangers were only expected to put up two goals in those minutes based on their shot quality (and were held to one), and while the Lightning had just one score for their efforts while Cirelli was deployed, they were expected to be closer to about five, as they generated 69.5 percent of the expected goals share.

The Stanley Cup Final brings one of the most challenging tasks yet in MacKinnon. He brings a different challenge than the centers Cirelli has faced in the first few rounds. He’s got more speed and physicality than Zibanejad and Barkov, and an elite skill set.

“People underestimate how physically strong he is,” Moore said of MacKinnon. “He can overpower pretty much anyone. He’s got more big-time speed than Barkov or a Huberdeau, but he’s also physically intimidating. He protects the puck on the forecheck. He’ll knock you over and take it. He’s a force to be reckoned with.”

Can Cirelli handle it?

He won’t be the first shutdown center going up against MacKinnon. Ryan O’Reilly did back in Round 2. At points in the series, the Avalanche won the shot battle but weren’t driving to the scoring areas like usual thanks to the Blues’ defensive plays.

But late in the series, MacKinnon managed to work his way through that matchup and keep playing to his strengths. Now, Cirelli and his wingers have to find a way to contain the elite forward.

“It’s a matter of playing to his strengths,” Moore said. “He’s not going to overpower MacKinnon in any respect. But he can be in his face, and whenever MacKinnon looks up, he’s right there. That can be difficult to play against. It’s all about being there tenaciously, getting knocked down but getting back up and always being there. Work with his feet and the right positioning, trying to get those guys to play in their own zone is a big part of it. That’s why they’ve been successful.”

Brind’Amour said it’s not about being physical with the other team’s top players, it’s getting them where it counts.

“You get under their skin by shutting them down,” Brind’Amour said. “I always liked playing against the best player because, back when I played, there were more holes in the top guys’ games. They cheated for offense. I knew if I played hard, beating this guy, I’m going to get my chances. It was in a way somewhat easier to play. You took pride in playing against better players.”

With the Avalanche, there’s plenty of skill to go around — and it’s not just MacKinnon. The center’s line all has size, with Valeri Nichushkin (five goals, four assists in 14 games) at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, and Gabriel Landeskog at 6-1, 215. Both wingers bring two-way elements that click well with MacKinnon’s game and are having strong postseasons. And often times it’s dynamic defensemen like Cale Makar and Devon Toews who help facilitate their offensive prowess.

“I think the difference with Florida series, the game plan was clear in not giving them turnovers and odd-man rushes and they should be okay,” Moore said. “With MacKinnon, the challenge is not just himself, it’s Makar and Toews freeing up MacKinnon. It’s Makar who can beat the forechecker, draws a second one and that opens up ice for MacKinnon & Co to do more damage.”

“It’s just pure speed,” Poulin said. “This is the fastest team that Tampa will have seen.”

Poulin said you have to take calculated risks, sometimes having to pick up those guys earlier up the ice. MacKinnon is great at going back deep in his own zone and picking up speed.

But the Avalanche know they have their hands full with Cirelli, too. Colorado coach Jared Bednar called Cirelli “tenacious, hard-working, great skater, intelligent, just to name a few.” MacKinnon said Cirelli is “always in a great position, kind of like Ryan O’Reilly. No cheating for offense.”

“He plays on the right side of the puck all the time and (is) a very good player,” Mikko Rantanen said. “Even offensively, you know. Maybe not the flashiest guy but makes the right plays always, so we just have to try to play with our strength and try to find a way to get a couple goals there and also defend well because they can score, obviously, too. But he’s a good shutdown forward, for sure.”

“You want to be a big part,” Hagel said Monday. “You want to be a huge part of why the team has success in being able to shut down — if that becomes the case — the MacKinnon line. It’ll be a challenge that we want to take and run with.”

Data via NaturalStatTrick, Evolving-Hockey, AllThreeZones, and HockeyViz. 

(Top photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA TODAY)