If the Flames don’t slow down Connor McDavid, their season is going to be over

EDMONTON — Four days ago, after the wild opening game of the Battle of Alberta, Darryl Sutter made a prediction about his team and the task at hand.

“He’s the best player in the league, he was the best player on the ice last night,” he said. “At the end of the series, if Connor McDavid gets four points a game, good luck next round, Connor.”

Remember, that was after a game the Flames won after scoring nine goals. Now, McDavid – the best player in the league, and the most productive, terrifying and inevitable – might not be averaging four points per game, but he’s close enough to proving Sutter right.

And now the Flames are near the brink because McDavid has put them there after the Oilers’ 4-1 win Sunday.

It’s not Mike Smith, as good as he was on Sunday making 32 saves on 33 shots. It’s not Evander Kane, even though he had a natural hat trick halfway through Game 3. This is happening – the potential early end to what’s been an excellent season – because of McDavid.

“We have to do a better job on him,” Rasmus Andersson said Sunday. “The first three games here, we’ve been letting him dominate and that’s why they’re up 2-1.”

On this night, it was the second period when McDavid inflicted the worst damage.

The first goal was a display of overcommitting on McDavid when he’s playing with skilled running mates, in this case, the top power-play unit. He started the rush with speed through the neutral zone, beating Calle Jarnkrok clean into the zone. The three other Flames players on the ice, plus goaltender Jacob Markstrom, turned their attention to McDavid. He made a quick pass to Leon Draisaitl, who gave it right to Zach Hyman for a shot on a half-open net. All four Flames players – technically five if you include Elias Lindholm, who was coming out of the penalty box – were on their heels and out of position because of the threat of McDavid.

Then there were the six minutes that it took to get Kane a natural hat trick. The first goal was a turnover off a blind pass that Kane picked up and scored off a give and go with Draisaitl. That was the only Oilers goal McDavid did not have a point on.

Fifty-three seconds later, McDavid turned inside on Noah Hanifin on the Flames’ blue line. As soon as Andersson committed to play the shot, the pass was on Kane’s tape and into the back of the net.

The goal that completed the hat trick was against the Flames’ fourth line. McDavid picked up speed unchecked through the neutral zone, caught Kylington on his heels and once again dished to Kane.

The Flames, on Sunday, had no answer for McDavid or his line with Draisaitl and Kane who scored three goals at five-on-five, off three rush chances. It was maybe the worst 20 minutes the Flames have played this season outside of a 7-1 loss to Vancouver in February.

They were sloppy, couldn’t defend the rush attack, didn’t possess the puck at five-on-five and gave the Oilers a lead they couldn’t overcome, scoring only one goal five minutes before the final buzzer.

“We let one guy dominate the game,” Andersson said. “Our second period wasn’t good enough.”

In all situations, shot attempts were 27-16 in the over 20 minutes with McDavid on the ice. The Oilers had 10 high-danger chances, per Natural Stat Trick, with McDavid on the ice, while the Flames’ entire team had 14.

Production from McDavid was going to be inevitable in this series; there’s no way around it. The goal for the Flames was to contain him as much as possible and to minimize the damage. In other words, the goal was to not allow McDavid to do exactly what he did – Take a 0-0 game and put it out of reach.

“We’ve let one guy beat us a few nights now,” Matthew Tkachuk said. “Back to the drawing board and figure out a way to stop him next game.”

The Flames are saying all the right things when it comes to trying to stop McDavid.

“I think for a guy like Connor, he’s a guy that really thrives on his skating and the way he uses his edges,” Blake Coleman said. “Obviously, you’re going to try and play him physical and make life hard for him. Anytime he’s building speed, you build speed with him. You’ve got to know he’s on the ice. You’ve got to have an awareness, and I think we’ve lacked that, at times, in this series of understanding of the personnel they have on the ice.

“It’s a team effort. You’re not going to shut him down with one guy. You need to be conscious of him and make life a lot harder than we have been.”

Coleman’s right, but containing McDavid is not that simple. Clearly.

Play him tight, but give yourself enough space to react to his decisions. Hanifin played him tight and McDavid put the puck through his legs and burned him on the rush.

Be aware of where he is, but don’t leave Hyman or Draisaitl or Kane wide open.

You can try not to let him pick up speed. Be physical, but stay out of the penalty box.

Play in the offensive zone, but don’t make egregious mistakes that put the puck in his hands on the counterattack.

If that sounds complicated … it is. Frankly, there might not be an answer to the way that McDavid has elevated his game this postseason, especially since the Flames are missing their most reliable defencemen. Chris Tanev would be out there for his fair share of matchup minutes against McDavid. And he’s looked pretty good in them.

In 252 minutes at five-on-five in his career, McDavid has scored only eight goals with Tanev on the ice, or 1.9 goals per 60. This isn’t something you can just fix; if Tanev were healthy enough to play, he would be playing.

And this isn’t a one-player fix. McDavid’s 2022 postseason is different. It’s something we haven’t seen in a long time. He has 23 points in 10 games, the best 10-game point-per-game mark in the playoffs other than Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.

If there is a way to contain him, it’s not what the Flames did Sunday. If there is an answer, they need to at least come closer to finding it than they have so far. If they don’t, this series is going to be over quicker than people thought. And Sutter’s prediction will have come true.

(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)