Maple Leafs can climb a level with more from John Tavares and William Nylander

TAMPA, Fla. — The Leafs eked out a pivotal win in Game 3. One mini victory for the Lightning in defeat was the job they did against Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

Matthews and Marner were largely swallowed up by a line designed to take them down. The Leafs two biggest stars spent most of Friday evening playing defence, thanks to the efforts of Anthony Cirelli, Brayden Point, and Alex Killorn — not to mention Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak on the back end.

Shots were 9-3 for Tampa when Matthews and Marner were on the ice with five a side. They didn’t make a dent on the five-on-five scoreboard — though they did combine to help the Leafs score a crucial game-opening power-play goal.

Overall this series, the Leafs are generating just 40 percent of the expected goals when Matthews and Marner are on the ice. Again, that’s by design. The Bolts’ No. 1 goal, above all else, is stopping — or at least slowing down — two of the league’s leading scorers from the regular season.

To their credit, Matthews and Marner have found pockets to produce. They’ve combined for three five-on-five goals already and combined to get Michael Bunting a goal in Game 2.

More than likely, they’re going to need some higher-level help at some point in this series. The Leafs probably shouldn’t count on finding four goals from Colin Blackwell, David Kampf, and Ilya Mikheyev every night, like they did in that Game 3 victory.

Which, of course, brings us to the two players pegged to play best supporting roles for the Leafs: William Nylander and John Tavares.

It’s been a quiet series to this point for both guys, neither of whom has produced a five-on-five point so far.

Nylander has yet to register a point period, though he has mustered 11 shots and been noticeably engaged. Tavares has yet to score in the series and picked up just one assist, which came on a Game 1 power play. Both have been helpful cogs on a power play that’s done damage. Tavares had been a faceoff-winning machine in Games 1 and 2, storming off with 22 of 28 draws.

Lightning coach Jon Cooper called him “a pain in the ass in the faceoff circle, because he wins so many.”

Tavares and Nylander have both had a small hand in the Leafs taking two out of the first three games. With more from them, the Leafs can be even better.

After more than a month spent mostly apart, Nylander and Tavares came out flying on their first shift back together in Game 3. Nylander generated a primetime look soon after that was denied by Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Keefe thought it was some of the best action the Leafs generated all night.

Still, in the nearly 6:30 that Tavares, Nylander and third wheel for the night, Ondrej Kase, were on the ice, the Leafs generated just 36 percent of the expected goals. A lost defensive-zone draw in the third period led straight to the Ondrej Palat goal that brought the Lightning within one.

If the Lightning are going to do everything they can to dull the impact of Matthews and Marner, at some point the Leafs are going to need their third- and fourth-best offensive players to make them pay, especially in Tampa where Cooper has sway over the matchups.

Doing so could put the Leafs over the top in this series.

“I think we started good last game — we had a few chances,” Nylander said after practice on Saturday. “But then (there were) a lot of power plays and then through the second half of the game, I think we were just trying to not get scored on. Obviously we got scored on there in the third period.

“It was just a battle to not give up any more dangerous chances.”

Added Tavares before Game 3: “I want to continue to find ways to generate more and break through there, but five-on-five overall it’s been tight.”

Indeed.

And while Matthews and Marner are contending with the wily Cirelli crew, it’s not as if Tavares and Nylander are getting a cupcake assignment. In Game 3, they were primarily going head-to-head with a Bolts No. 1 line led by Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov.

That will presumably continue in Game 4 on Sunday night.

The Leafs need something closer to a saw-off. Scoring chances were 8-1 for Tampa when Tavares was on the ice against Stamkos, and of course, there was the goal that brought the home side back within one.

“You just want to keep them off the board as good as you can, and then if you’re able to get one that’s great too,” Nylander said.

Overall for the series, Tavares and Nylander — playing apart in Games 1 and 2 notably — are both sitting in the low 40s in the expected goals department. They’ve not won their minutes or done much rolling around in the O-zone.

“Against a team like that,” Keefe said, “if you don’t get out of your zone within, certainly, the first 10 seconds, if not quicker than that, they’re gonna gain control, they’re gonna spread you out, and it’s gonna be really hard to get out. And then from there, you’re pretty much putting yourself into a position where now we’re containing and trying to not give up the slot and not give up a high-danger chance.

“So we were in that mode a lot on (Friday) night, especially in the second half of the game,” the Leafs coach added of Game 3. “So it took away from a lot of our offence. Our focus has got to be on exiting quickly.”

Keefe has made defence the biggest priority in the series for Tavares and Nylander, “making sure that that’s tight, and the offence and chances and time in the offensive zone will come.”

Stamkos and Kucherov have yet to score at five-on-five so far this series. That’s obviously a win for the Leafs (with credit owed mostly to Jake Muzzin and T.J. Brodie along with the Matthews and Kampf units). Continue to give them time to stretch out in the offensive zone again and they’re bound to strike.

One thorny, related issue the Leafs are dealing with is faceoffs.

Keefe is rightly sending the Matthews line out for as many offensive-zone draws as possible. The downside for the Tavares group is twofold: Fewer starts in the red zone, and more, conversely, everywhere else.

In Game 3, Tavares lined up for five defensive-zone faceoffs. He drew just two spins at the other end.

Overall this series, Matthews has been sent out for 17 offensive-zone faceoffs. Tavares? Just five.

That’s not ideal for Tavares and Nylander, a twosome that’s had its issues defensively and is ideally getting stuffed in the O-zone.

Zone starts vs. Tampa

Zone Tavares Matthews

Offensive

5

17

Neutral

15

8

Defensive

9

13

O-zone start %

36%

57%

Can the Leafs even those numbers up a bit? Sprinkle in a few more starts on offence for Tavares and Nylander?

Doing so could mean siphoning away the odd offensive-zone draw from the Matthews group, which isn’t ideal. It might, however, lighten the competition slightly for Tavares and Nylander. Cooper may be less inclined to send Stamkos and Kucherov out for extra defensive-zone draws.

The downside? Matthews and Marner have to dig their way out of their own zone.

Keefe could also drop Marner into the mix with Tavares and Nylander the odd time, and/or pop Nylander in there with Matthews and Marner occasionally. All the more so now that Bunting has been dropped in the lineup.

In theory, Nylander should open up more space for the Leafs’ captain to operate, more space in particular for him to find openings around the net. That’s where he does his best work. That just didn’t happen in Game 3, or much at all this series.

Tavares has mustered just three five-on-five shot attempts all series, the same number as Jason Spezza managed alone in Game 3.

Speedy, slick opponents up front, such as Kucherov, make it tough to get free. Monster defencemen guarding the Tampa net do too.

Just look at the size of the dudes playing defence for the Lightning.

The monster Tampa defence

Player Height Weight (LBs)

6-2

200

6-3

230

6-4

227

6-6

241

6-1

215

6-3

204

6-3

216

I mean, technically the smallest guy in that bunch is Zach Bogosian. No one would describe that man as anything but large and snarly.

Tavares and Nylander spent mostly equal amounts playing opposite Mikhail Sergachev, Ryan McDonagh, Cal Foote, and Bogosian in Game 3, with a few spins against Hedman and Cernak too.

Not only are those humongous defencemen. They’re also pretty good at what they do. McDonagh is among the very best defensive stoppers in hockey. Hedman is a perennial Norris Trophy contender. Sergachev would be playing on the top pair for a whole bunch of teams.

The Lightning also tend to mix their groups up. McDonagh mostly played with Bogosian on Friday. He also spent four minutes with Foote and three minutes with Sergachev. In the first two games of the series, he and Hedman played nearly equal amounts with Cernak, who’s large and mean.

It’s as though there’s two redwoods planted outside the blue paint at all times.

“They’re long and not just closing time and space quickly,” Tavares said, “but even just getting around them, around the net front, and trying to earn body position and win those types of battles — that’s always a challenge.”

That’s what makes Nylander so essential.

He can put all kinds of pressure on those D, some slower moving than others, with his speed and elusiveness. He’s got tremendous puck control. He’s equal parts dangerous as a shooter and passer. At his best, he can make Tavares’ life a lot easier. And to his credit, he’s been aggressive shooting the puck in this series.

“Willy’s as dynamic of a player as they come,” Tavares said. “Obviously his poise and his skating ability, and (he’s) such a dual-threat option — obviously such a good shooter, but he can see the ice really well.

“When you add that (to your line), that obviously adds a different dynamic because his skill set’s so strong.”

Can Kase’s speed and forechecking ability help the line to force some turnovers? Might the Leafs give Bunting a look there if he’s unable to keep up with Matthews and Marner, coming off an injury?

That’s one thing Keefe highlighted during the months-long regular-season struggle between Nylander and Tavares: They needed to turn more pucks over through sheer force and determination. That way, they would play more often against a defence that wasn’t set.

At their best, Nylander said he and Tavares are “skating and moving the puck fast, quick — give-and-gos — and going to the net and getting pucks there and finding each other and getting speed off of breakouts and stuff like that, which we have to get a little bit better on.”

“But,” he added, “I think for the first game we played together in the playoffs we started off good.”

As Keefe noted, the penalty fest in Games 1 and 2 had an effect on Tavares and Nylander. It limited their ice time and disrupted the rhythm of their shifts. Tavares went over five minutes between shifts in the second period of a penalty-filled Game 1.

Tavares averaged about 14 five-on-five minutes per game in the regular season. So far this series he’s down to 11 minutes on average.

Fewer penalties as the teams adjust to the officiating should spur more opportunity for him and Nylander. That, and the coaching staff making an extra effort to get them out for prime hunting opportunities.

The Leafs have gotten the early edge in goal. They’ve got terrific contributions from Kampf, Mikheyev, and Pierre Engvall. Matthews and Marner have made an impact.

Muzzin and Brodie have done yeoman’s work. The power play hit in Games 1 and 3.

If all that keeps up, the Leafs might push past the Bolts even with minimal contributions from Tavares and Nylander.

More likely, especially given all the attention on Matthews and Marner, they’re going to need those two stars to pump in a goal here and there and swing their minutes closer to even.

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey

(Top photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)