Mild & dry Sunday to wrap up our weekend – Nick

Good early Sunday morning, everyone. While we did have plenty of rain and t-storms from the cold front that came through, we were able to get away with just a handful of severe t-storm warnings with some hail stones ranging between penny-size and quarter-size hail. On the other hand, rain is what a good number of us got as the line of t-storms plowed on through. Radar estimates put our average rain amounts at 0.9″ across the area. However, areas around Joplin that saw rain amounts range between 1 and 4 inches had to deal with some flash flooding early Saturday morning.

Once those storms cleared out right after sunrise, our Saturday was a pretty good one under partly to mostly sunny skies with highs back in the lower to middle 70s. The surface map below shows the last cold front continuing to push off to the east of the region. However, another warm front is developing on the backside of the cold front from southern Texas. That front will start to work together with the next cold front out west and another upper-level wave out to the west to change things up for Monday.

Before the system gets here, our Sunday is looking pretty good for us. Mostly clear skies by sunrise will lead to a cool start to the day as temperatures will drop back into the upper 40s.

With a light west & southwest breeze in control, we’ll have no problem warming back up today. Even with our mostly sunny skies turning partly sunny by late afternoon, we’ll have highs back in the lower to middle 70s.

Ahead of the approaching warm front and upper-level wave, we’ll see skies turn mostly cloudy late tonight and certainly for Monday morning. We’ll also see some scattered showers and t-storms sneak in during the overnight and into Monday morning. Those shouldn’t be too strong or severe. However, they will lead to a chilly start with lows back in the 50s.

Even with the scattered showers and t-storms in the morning, the advancing warm front and some dry time for part of Monday afternoon will push highs back into the lower 70s for most and middle 70s for some. However, we’ll focus on the approaching cold front from the west as we get into Monday evening. You can see how it will fire up a severe line of t-storms around the I-135 corridor before it heads in.

Indications still show that even with the morning round of scattered showers and t-storms, that won’t overwork the atmosphere before the cold front comes in Monday evening. That means we’ll have another severe threat to keep an eye on between 7 PM Monday and as late as 1 AM Tuesday. You can see the low to elevated severe threat below that covers the area. You’ll also note that we have elevated our potential threats for hail, wind, rain and even tornadoes.

Before the front can bring in the main line of t-storms from the west, it will be possible for some widely scattered supercell t-storms to develop that will certainly be capable of wind, hail and tornadoes. We’ll keep an eye on any t-storms that could develop ahead of the main line as early as 7 o’clock Monday evening.

Unlike the last front with the last line of t-storms, the Future Track wants the line to push through the region earlier than the last time. Even as it comes into the heart of the area by 10 PM, it will still certainly be capable of mainly wind and hail. Within the line, though, we can’t rule out some random spin-up tornadoes.

By the time we head into early Tuesday morning (1 AM on the Future Track below), our window for severe weather will come to a close. We still won’t rule out some leftover scattered showers and t-storms to get your Tuesday morning started with lows back in the 50s. In terms of potential rainfall, projections show our area should be fair game to pick up anywhere between half an inch on the low end to almost 3 inches on the high end.

After any t-storms early Tuesday morning, mostly cloudy skies will keep us in the middle 60s for highs on Tuesday. While the day looks dry, we’ll have yet another system come our way for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. You can see on the Future Track below how it wants to track across the Central and Northern Plains through the middle of the week. This could also be another shot for strong t-storms (maybe another possible severe threat as well) for us to keep an eye on.

Even with those t-storm chances, we’ll stay mild with highs between the upper 60s and lower 70s for both Wednesday and Thursday. Next weekend starts with a dry Friday before another quick system could bring some scattered t-storms our way for Saturday. However, temperatures will still stay mild as we get next weekend underway. Doug’s long-range forecast takes you through much of the month of May down below. Have a great Sunday!

Nick

May 8th-14th:  A warm storm with thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, most likely severe.  Cooler for the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures back in the rest of the week with thunderstorms by the weekend.

May 15th-21st:  Cooler start to the week with thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.  We warm up toward the weekend with Saturday thunderstorms, most likely severe.

May 22nd-28th: Mild start to the week before we warm up by the middle of the week. T-storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday could be severe. Dry for the rest of the week.

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