Mastrodonato: Why Joey Gallo wouldn’t be a good fit for the Red Sox at the MLB Trade Deadline
Joey #Joey
The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching, teams are already dealing and at least one player that could’ve helped the Red Sox is now off the market.
The San Diego Padres made another big addition — what’s new? — when old friend Ben Cherington, now the general manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, traded All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier to Southern California for three prospects, including Tucupita Marcano, the eighth-best prospect in the Pirates’ system according to Baseball America.
A free agent after 2022, Frazier would’ve been perfect in Boston, where he could’ve played anywhere on the diamond and immediately added versatility to Alex Cora’s lineup over the next two seasons.
But more importantly, Frazier is the National League hits leader. He doesn’t hit for power — he has just four home runs — but he’s a single and doubles machine.
And most importantly, he makes contact. His 89% contact rate ranks fourth among all MLB hitters.
Frazier does well the very thing the Red Sox showed they needed all weekend, and they finally found it in the final two innings against the Yankees on Sunday night, when some simple contact led them to a remarkable comeback in a 5-4 win.
Monday, the Red Sox went back to work in the same fashion they have all year, with a first baseman who doesn’t make contact.
Franchy Cordero got the start at first base as Bobby Dalbec continues to sit the bench, which he’s done in about half the Sox’ games this month after starting more than 75% of the games through June. Between Cordero, Dalbec and Michael Chavis, the Red Sox have used a trio of first basemen who make less contact than almost every other player in baseball this year.
Dalbec’s contact rate of 62% ranks 193th out of 195 players with at least 250 plate appearances. Chavis has a 60% contact rate and Cordero has a 63% contact rate.
We don’t need to watch highlight videos of the 2015 Kansas City Royals to remind you why making contact is so important.
The game changed after 2015. It morphed into an all-or-nothing game that Cora used to call “showcase-style baseball.” Strikeouts and home runs were king.
But that stopped being the case this year. The balls have been deadened, the rules have been changed and baseball is once again favoring teams that make contact.
The Red Sox haven’t done that well this year. For as successful as they’ve been making comebacks, with 32 of their 60 wins occurring on nights the Red Sox had to erase a deficit, they’ve done so while making contact just 75% of the time, 19th in baseball.
The most glaring problem on their team is the lack of a first baseman who can make contact consistently. From first base this year, they have struck out 35% of the time, easily the worst rate in MLB. Only one other team, the Twins at 32%, is over 30%.
Back in spring training, we looked at Dalbec and wondered if he could just hit .240, it’d probably be OK if he could hit 30-35 home runs. He could hit ninth and just supply some pop from the bottom of the order.
Now that we see how good the Red Sox’ lineup has otherwise been, things have changed.
The Sox don’t need a swing-and-miss power hitter at first base. They just need someone who can make contact, put the ball in play when they need to, get on base and keep the line moving. They need someone who can turn the lineup over and let Kiké Hernandez restart the whole thing from the top.
Look around at the players available and the Red Sox clearly don’t need someone like the Rangers’ Joey Gallo, who comes from the Dalbec-style of offense. Gallo is similarly striking out 62% of the time. He does hit left-handed, and he has been successful at hitting homers (24 of them as of Monday), so he’d be an upgrade to Dalbec. He’s also under control through 2022.
But is it worth giving up coveted prospects for another swing-and-miss guy to plug in at first base?
It appears the Padres now want to move Eric Hosmer, who can make contact but has largely disappointed in his four years in San Diego (.263 average and .735 OPS), and still has a $21 million salary this year and next, then another $39 million over the following three years.
Pass.
Joey Votto is among the best ever at getting on base, he hits left-handed and he’s just the type of guy who is chomping at the bit to get some playoff experience after spending his entire career in Cincinnati, but he has $75 million and three years remaining.
Pass.
The best options for the Red Sox are contact guys on short contracts.
Whit Merrifield from the Royals, if the price wasn’t so high, makes a lot of sense given his 85% contact rate, affordable contract and ability to play all over the field.
Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs is still the best possible outcome, given he’s in his final year of his contract, has playoff experience, hits left-handed and makes contact 82% of the time.
Contact guys are what the Red Sox need at first base. The clock is ticking.