In charts: How the grading algorithm U-turn fails to fix grade inequality

The scrapping of the grade-setting algorithm for A-level students in England has led to an unprecedented rise in top grades – by far the biggest in at least two decades.

Yet Telegraph analysis also shows the U-turn only partly reverses the disparity between the most and least deprived students that drew the ire of critics last week.

The number of A and A* grades will now rise by 12.4 percentage points (pp) on last year – over seven times greater than the original rise of 2.4pp announced on Thursday – now that students will receive their teachers’ predictions, known officially as Centre Assessment Grades (CAGs). 

Even with the downgrading of just under 40 per cent of predicted grades, exam regulator Ofqual’s algorithm had already implied the highest level of A*s and As since 2001.

By contrast top grades had fallen by 0.9pp last year, which had been the largest fall since comparable records began in 2000.

On Monday Gavin Williamson confirmed that A-levels and GCSEs will be teacher assessed, and apologised to students, teachers and parents for any distress caused by the exams row. 

The Education Secretary said he was “sorry for the distress this has caused” after a U-turn on the system for awarding A-level and GCSE grades.

“We worked with Ofqual to construct the fairest possible model, but it is clear that the process of allocating grades has resulted in more significant inconsistencies than can be resolved through an appeals process,” he said. 

“We now believe it is better to offer young people and parents certainty by moving to teacher assessed grades for both A and AS level and GCSE results. I am sorry for the distress this has caused young people and their parents but hope this announcement will now provide the certainty and reassurance they deserve.”

The U-turn means that over a third of all grades (37.7 per cent) will be A or higher in 2020, in contrast to 25.5 per cent for last year, which had been the lowest level since 2007 following reforms increasing the difficulty of A-levels and GCSEs. 

One side effect of Gavin Williamson’s dropping of Ofqual’s model, which had moderated teacher predictions using data on historic individual and school achievement while attempting to maintain the national distribution of grades, has been to shift the disparity between the most and least deprived students.

After A-level students opened result letters on Thursday, documents released by Ofqual revealed that its model had hit the most deprived students hardest in terms of downgrades to C grades or above.

Students with low socio-economic status had seen 10.4 per cent of their predicted grades downgraded by at least one place, versus 8.3 per cent of the grades given to their least deprived counterparts.

However, though reverting to teacher grades will reverse this disparity in terms of C grades, it opens a new gap in the case of grades of at least A or higher. 

Under the algorithm, there were 7.32 per cent more high income students receiving at least an A than low income students, but under CAGs, this gap is now 8.37 per cent.

The disparity is even larger for A*s, where 4.41 per cent more high income students will receive the top mark than lower income students, instead of the 2.75 per cent gap that had been generated by Ofqual’s algorithm. 

That said, in absolute terms more of the most deprived students will received a grade A or higher due to predicted grades – 31.4 per cent, compared to 30.0% under the algorithm.

Sir Keir Starmer has attacked Gavin Williamson’s “incompetence” after the Education Secretary announced the last-minute U-turn on exams assessment. 

The Labour leader tweeted: “The Government has had months to sort out exams and has now been forced into a screeching U-turn after days of confusion.

“This is a victory for the thousands of young people who have powerfully made their voices heard this past week.

“However, the Tories’ handling of this situation has been a complete fiasco.

“Incompetence has become this Government’s watchword, whether that is on schools, testing or care homes.

“Boris Johnson’s failure to lead is holding Britain back.”