Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

A lightly-raced stayer from the Edward Cummings stable is ready to explode with a peak performance. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Form analyst Shayne O’Cass is keen on a promising gelding to prove too tough for his rivals while a locally-trained mare can make land another win.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 3 No. 8: LAVA

Edward Cummings trained son of Reset who could potentially peak here in what shapes as a very suitable and winnable race for the consistent stayer with Kathy O’Hara to ride.

NEXT BEST

Race 6 No. 8: CHERVIL

Exciting daughter of White Sage; this locally-trained grey has a Heavy 10 win on the C.V and has a powerful finish.

VALUE BET

Race 5 No. 8: SIR AGLOVALE

Kiwi stayer making his Australian debut for Chris Waller off a couple of lovely trials. Trip perfect for him; note he is nominated for Scone on Friday too.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 3,6,8,9

Race 5: 3,4,8,9,12

Race 6: 3,8,10,11

Race 7: 4,13,14,17

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

James McDonald has a strike rate of a shade over 20 per cent at Warwick Farm which is his second most successful track in terms of wins.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Debut run, one trial, 1400m on a Heavy track is hardly a dream scenario but the Chris Waller-trained Celtic Harp sends out all the signs that he has the makings of a really nice horse. He must be a smashing type given he cost $575,000 which is a lot given his pedigree. Impossible not to be impressed with the win of Cotehele at Newcastle. The son of Tavistock won the race thanks to a burst of acceleration that they don’t have. Waller’s $1.15 million yearling Greater Harlem ran second to Overpass on debut and we know that form stands up.

Bet: Celtic Harp each-way in full field or if scratched, Cotehele to win

RACE 2

Scream And Shout ran a fantastic race on debut back in September when he took a heap of ground away late from Count De Rupee who, we now know turned out handy. Fast forward to April 27 and Scream And Shout justified his odds-on quote with a booming win at Goulburn. Arrives here in great shape. Hot Spring Gold has some real depth to his form; he has raced some pretty good horses and would have beaten a few of them if his pattern didn’t work against him. Salateen is more than capable on her day.

Bet: Scream And Shout to win

RACE 3

Lava is a son of the recently departed unbeaten racehorse and underrated stallion, Reset. This Darley bred gelding has clearly had a few issues here and there with just 10 runs on the C.V at age five. You get the impression that not even Bart Cummings could have the horse as fit as Edward Cummings has him for this very suitable mission. Sound Of Cannons is seemingly a bit ‘iffy’ on wet tracks but maybe his record is a bit misleading. He surely has the talent to win. Feel The Rush is the undoubted muddie in the field and she will stay all week.

Bet: Lava to win, box trifecta 2,3,5,8

RACE 4

James McDonald is a key booking on any horse but more so here on Up Trumpz. McDonald rides Warwick Farm really well; in fact, it is his second most successful venue (behind Rosehill) on the score of wins. Up Trumpz needs a good ride too. He is so often without luck but in the smallish field here, he might get his chance. The Joe Pride-trained pair of Derbari and Invinciano are so well placed and they both get their preferred conditions. Big shout out to Pearl Roan who has lured ‘Gibbo’ to the midweeks today.

Bet: Up Trumpz to win, Pearl Roan to place

RACE 5

Sir Aglovale is just about the most interesting horse racing all day. He is a Chris Waller-trained Kiwi gelding in some very familiar racing silks. His sire, Camelot win the English Derby, his dam was a very good G3 winner up to 2400m. On top of all that, he is in-bred to Sadler’s Wells which all explains why he is a 2000m horse but is going super in his trials for a first-up 1400m run. Azarmin came from 14th of 16 at the turn to run fifth in the Kembla Provincial Championship Heat and was outstanding again after that. Tenorino lines-up for his 77th start today but he likes the venue, the trip and loves the slop.

Bet: Sir Aglovale to win

RACE 6

Chervil is a very cleverly named daughter of White Sage who won five in a row including a Festival Stakes. A grey like mum, Chervil has a massive finish on her which we saw when she won on debut and again first-up at Goulburn. She has a heavy 10 win and she is racing at home today. Tiny has form around some quality types, Never Talk for one, and certainly did enough in her first two preps to warrant respect here. There are some other lightly-raced, progressive types to consider namely Embeller, Nags To Riches and Eye See Things.

Bet: Chervil to win

RACE 7

Adelaide’s Light is naturally by Cox Plate winner Adelaide. His grand-dam is Our Egyptian Raine who won a Group 1 and was placed in 10 others, eight of them were seconds. This Snowden-trained colt comes here on a hat trick after some impressive/easy wins at the provincials. There is nothing at all in Macushla’s recent form to get excited about except for the fact that she gets a bit of weight off her back for the first time in a while and also that both her wins were on heavy tracks. Others to consider here are Buba who is ‘2 for 2’ on Heavy, Insensata who often flies as well as Tri Nations and Rockarosa.

Bet: Macushla to place, Buba to place