2021 Toyota Owners 400 odds: Surprising NASCAR at Richmond picks, projected leaderboard from advanced model

Richmond Raceway first hosted the NASCAR Cup Series in 1953, and on Sunday the three-quarter mile oval will host its 129th Cup race. The green flag drops on the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 at 3 p.m. ET and Martin Truex Jr. will be on the pole using NASCAR’s competition-based formula to determine the 2021 NASCAR at Richmond starting grid. Truex is coming off a win last week at Martinsville and won both of the 2019 races in Richmond.

Truex is the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Toyota Owners odds from William Hill Sportsbook. But plenty of other superstars have had success on this famed short track, with Brad Keselowski (5-1), Denny Hamlin (5-1), Kyle Busch (10-1) and Kevin Harvick (10-1) all near the top of the NASCAR at Richmond 2021 odds board. Before you scour the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup and make any NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Toyota Owners 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

During the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in four of the last five races. Last week, it had Martin Truex Jr. at the top of its projected leaderboard at Martinsville, nailing his victory for a 3-1 payout. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 Toyota Owners 400 leaderboard.

Top 2021 Toyota Owners 400 predictions

One shocker: the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he’s a 10-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Richmond odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch swept the two races at Richmond Raceway on his way to winning the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series championship and has six career cup wins at the track.

The 57-time cup winner and two-time champion has only finished outside the top 10 once in his last 10 starts on the D-shaped oval and has been racing better of late after a disappointing start to the season. Busch finished 14th in the Daytona 500 and 35th in the Daytona road race, but has since tallied four top-10s in six starts.

Another massive surprise: Chase Elliott, one of the top Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and doesn’t even crack the top five. There are far better values in the loaded 2021 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion has had a rough start to the year overall, finishing outside the top 10 in four of his eight starts.

Even though Elliott is coming off a strong second-place showing at Martinsville last week, he hasn’t been able to punch through at Richmond yet. In fact, Elliott has finished 10th or worse in seven of his 10 career starts there, including two finishes outside the top 10 in his last three starts.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Richmond odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Toyota Owners 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Toyota Owners 400 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed at least seven of the top 10 drivers in three of the last four races. 

2021 Toyota Owners 400 odds 

Martin Truex Jr. 7-2Denny Hamlin 5-1Brad Keselowski 5-1Kyle Larson 13-2Chase Elliott 13-2Joey Logano 8-1Kyle Busch 10-1Kevin Harvick 10-1Ryan Blaney 18-1Alex Bowman 25-1William Byron 25-1Christopher Bell 28-1Kurt Busch 40-1Austin Dillon 60-1Matt DiBenedetto 75-1Aric Almirola 75-1Tyler Reddick 75-1Bubba Wallace 100-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 125-1Ryan Newman 125-1Cole Custer 200-1Chris Buescher 250-1Austin Cindric 250-1Daniel Suarez 250-1Michael McDowell 300-1Ross Chastain 300-1Erik Jones 300-1Chase Briscoe 300-1Ryan Preece 500-1Justin Haley 2000-1Corey Lajoie 2500-1Anthony Alfredo 2500-1Josh Bilicki 5000-1Cody Ware 5000-1BJ McLeod 5000-1Garrett Smithley 5000-1James Davison 5000-1Quin Houff 5000-1