FIRST ALERT: Strong storms Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
Good Wednesday #GoodWednesday
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) – Good Wednesday morning! We are starting off the day dry and mild. Temperatures are in the 50s in parts of east Alabama. It is a little warmer in west Alabama where some spots are in the upper 50s and lower 60s. First Alert AccuTrack Satellite and Radar is showing us dry with a few clouds in place. We are watching a cold front to our west that is producing cloud cover and showers in parts of Arkansas. This system will move into our area tonight and into early Thursday morning, giving us a chance for showers and thunderstorms. For most of today, we will remain dry. We’ll add a 20% chance for an isolated shower or storm this evening. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s today with southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Cloud cover is forecast to increase this afternoon. We’ll likely end up mostly cloudy by this evening. If you have any outdoor plans today, I would not cancel them as most of the rain will move in overnight. Storms that move in tonight could be strong or severe.
Next Big Thing: Our Next Big Thing is the arrival of strong and potentially severe storms tonight. A standard slight risk, or threat level two out of five, has been issued for far west Alabama, most of Mississippi, and west Tennessee. A marginal risk, or a threat level one out of five, has been issued for a good bit of Central Alabama. A line of strong storms is forecast to move into west Alabama as early as 10 p.m. As the storms move eastward, we believe that the storms should gradually weaken as the dynamics across the state weaken. Storms will likely move through Birmingham between 2 – 6 a.m. Main threat tonight will be strong winds, some hail, and a very low-end threat for an isolated tornado. Heavy rain will also be likely as the line moves eastward. The threat will likely come to an end for east Alabama late Thursday morning around 10-11 a.m. Just make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings tonight in case they are issued. I always recommend a NOAA Weather Radio and the WBRC First Alert Weather App.
Drying Out Thursday Afternoon: Once the storms move through tomorrow, Thursday afternoon is shaping up to be nice and mostly dry. We’ll likely end up with a partly cloudy sky with highs in the upper 70s. It’ll end up breezy tomorrow with southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
First Alert for Stormy Weather Friday: The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a low threat for strong and severe storms across Central Alabama Friday. Friday’s threat looks more like a strong wind and large hail concern. Southerly winds will likely bring in another round of showers and storms across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Wind shear is fairly low Friday, but we should see plenty of unstable air to support a couple of stronger storms. It’ll be more typical of a summertime pattern where storms pop up during the heating of the day. Plan for a mostly cloudy sky Friday with a 60% chance for storms. Highs will likely climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Stormy Start to the Weekend: A strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop to our west and move northwards into the Midwest Saturday afternoon. We will likely see another round of showers and storms across the area Saturday morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. I can’t rule out the potential for strong and severe storms. Main threat will be damaging winds and the threat for an isolated tornado. Greatest severe and heavy rain threat could develop along the Gulf Coast as a weak low develops. If plenty of storms form to our south, it could reduce our rainfall totals and severe threat. Temperatures are forecast to trend cooler Saturday with highs in the lower 70s. Rain and storms should move out Saturday night giving way to drier and slightly cooler air.
Potential Rainfall Totals: Models continue to show widespread rainfall totals around 2-3″ across most of Central Alabama over the next five days. Some spots could end up with higher totals once we get through Saturday. With so much rainfall over the past month, any additional rainfall could produce river flooding. Flash flooding is also possible. Just remember to never drive through a flooded area. Turn around, don’t drown.
Dry and Cooler Sunday: Sunday is shaping up to be our best weather day over the next five days. We’ll end up with clouds decreasing with highs in the low to mid 70s. We should see plenty of sunshine Sunday afternoon with lower humidity levels.
Next Week’s Forecast: The first half of next week is looking mostly dry with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s. We could see another cold front move through our area Tuesday-Thursday giving us a chance for a few showers. Temperatures may trend slightly below average by the second half of next week with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. No sign of any freezing temperatures over the next seven to ten days. Make sure you download the WBRC First Alert Weather App for the latest weather information.
Have a safe Wednesday.
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