Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction
Portland #Portland
The Miami Heat (22-22) host the Portland Trail Blazers (25-18) Thursday at American Airlines Arena for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Trail Blazers-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Portland is 4-4 straight up since the All-Star break but only 2-6 against the spread. The Blazers have lost back-to-back home games to the Brooklyn Nets (116-112 as 2-point favorites) and Dallas Mavericks (132-92 as 2-point underdogs) entering Thursday.
Miami has lost four straight games following a five-game win streak, four of which came after the All-Star Game, and is just 3-6 ATS in those nine games.
The Heat are averaging only 100.3 points per game on 40.7% field-goal shooting (27.7% from behind the arc) during their four-game skid.
These teams split last season’s series 1-1 straight up and ATS.
Trail Blazers at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Trail Blazers at Heat: Key injuries
Trail Blazers
Heat
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Trail Blazers at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks Prediction
Heat 117, Trail Blazers 111
Money line (ML)
PASS because I’m iffy on the sides in Trail Blazers-Heat and LEAN Miami (-135) but would rather lay 2 points with the Heat to cover the spread than pay the extra vig.
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Against the spread (ATS)
LEAN HEAT -2 (-110) for a quarter-unit only because I prefer the total more than the side in this game.
This game opened with Miami laying -170 on the money line, according to Pregame.com, but the Heat have been steamed down because more than 90% of bettors are backing Portland to win outright.
Furthermore, Miami is eighth in defensive rating and the Blazers are 6-8 straight up with minus-5.0 points per 100 possessions and the 24th-ranked ATS margin vs. top-10 teams in defensive points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE OVER 217.5 (-115) for 1 unit because both offenses should have success in this matchup.
Miami allows the most 3-point attempts in the NBA while Portland shoots the 2nd-most 3-pointers per game and has the 9ninh-highest 3-point percentage. If the Heat let the Blazers chuck threes, Portland could score around 115 points.
On the other hand, the Heat’s 3-point shooting has really fallen off year over year but the Blazers are a terrible 3-point defense. Miami still attempts the 10th-most threes per game and is due for some progression in the 3-point department given how terrible it has shot recently.
Finally, the Heat are 10th in FTA/FG rate and the Blazers’ are 23rd in defensive FTA/FG rate so expect to see Miami spend a lot of time at the charity stripe Thursday.
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