4 lessons from 4 Wild Card sweeps

Some very bright minds have been rendered ridiculous when trying to surmise anything of substance from small numbers of baseball games. The stakes might be immense within the pulse of the postseason, but, when you get right down to it, these are still short series, which is to say anything can happen … and usually does.

This is especially true in best-of-three series. And especially especially true in two-game sweeps.

But we just watched four such sweeps in the Wild Card Series round, which means now, with an eternity between rounds (OK, so it’s only two days, but it will still feel like an eternity), we have no choice but to think way too much about what we just watched. So against our better judgment, let’s revisit each series and conjure up one lesson learned from each.

Rangers over RaysTakeaway: Let’s hear it for the Other Guys!

It’s a very, very baseball-y thing for the storylines that get the most attention to prove to be secondary in importance to the storylines that get less attention. The 2023 Rangers are excellent evidence of this phenomenon.

You might remember the breathless coverage when the Rangers signed Jacob deGrom to a five-year, $185 million contract. It was equal parts excitement over a Texas team on the rise adding one of the most accomplished arms of his generation and alarm over the Rangers committing such a staggering sum to a guy with ample injury trouble in his recent past. The 35-year-old deGrom wound up pitching 30 1/3 innings before succumbing to his second elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.

Then there was the breathless coverage of the Trade Deadline acquisition of Max Scherzer, deGrom’s former Mets rotation mate. Again, big name with big risk, given Scherzer’s age and innings and recent injuries and the fact that acquiring him cost the Rangers an interesting prospect who just so happens to be Ronald Acuña Jr.’s little brother. Scherzer gave them 45 innings before straining a muscle in his throwing shoulder — an injury that kept him out of the Wild Card Series and, in all likelihood, will keep him out of the ALDS, too.

The Rangers’ signing of Nathan Eovaldi to a two-year, $34 million deal in the winter and their trade with the Cardinals for Jordan Montgomery this summer weren’t ignored, of course. But these were certainly secondary transactions to the deGrom and Scherzer deals. Yet Eovaldi and Montgomery are the reasons why the Rangers just turned the Rays’ once-bountiful bats into playoff roadkill. They both pitched into the seventh inning (yes, that’s still allowed) and combined to hold the Rays to a run on 12 hits with zero walks and 13 strikeouts.

There’s this debate sometimes in the industry about to what lengths teams should go to chase a Wild Card spot, given the randomness of October baseball. The Rangers’ front office and ownership were adamant about the value of any October opportunity, which is why they left no stone unturned in free agency and trade. It served them well this round.

Twins over Blue JaysTakeaway: Wherefore art thou, Guerrero?

The Twins overcame all those awful things said about the AL Central. We’ll have plenty of time in the next couple days to discuss Royce Lewis having that October “It” factor and living up to his 1-1 Draft status when healthy this year. And Carlos Correa demonstrating that, even in a return from plantar fasciitis and on the heels of a disappointing year, he has the awareness and athleticism to make two series-shaping defensive plays. And the real threat the Twins pose to the Astros with Pablo López and Sonny Gray pitching like aces.

But for now, the image we can’t shake from this series is that of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. futilely reaching for the bag on the rare postseason pickoff at the second sack — the most important play of Game 2. Not even the bigger base could save Vladdy or a Jays team that has struggled to live up to the sum of its parts for some time now.

The excitement when Guerrero arrived in 2019 could be felt beyond the Canadian border boundary. The son of a Hall of Famer was expected to usher in a new World Series championship window. And the Jays, to their credit, have expended a lot of energy and resources in an attempt to capitalize on it, with big-for-them signings of George Springer, Hyun Jin Ryu, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt, and substantial swaps for Matt Chapman and José Berríos.

It just hasn’t amounted to much, unfortunately. The Jays have not made a serious run at the AL East, and they have now been swept out of the Wild Card Series not once, not twice, but thrice (in addition to missing the playoffs by a game under the old format in 2021).

There are a lot of reasons why disappointment like this happens, but it would be fair to suggest that the biggest disappointment of all has been Guerrero himself. Powered in part by odd, hitter-friendly home environs in Dunedin and Buffalo during the COVID crisis, he had a monster year in 2021, when he was the AL MVP runner-up. But that season (and his epic turns in the Home Run Derby) currently stands as the outlier in his career. For Guerrero, this frustrating, sub-.800 OPS season is now sealed with a lapse in judgment on the basepaths at a moment when the Jays were desperate for a run.

Now, the Jays head into the offseason with the arbitration costs of Guerrero and their core rising and Chapman, Ryu and others reaching free agency. They’re going to need him more than ever. This year, he came up short. In this case, literally.

D-backs over BrewersTakeaway: The Ketel is hot!

OK, now that we’ve done our part in addressing the majesty of the presumptive NL Rookie of the Year and his impact on this athletic, upstart D-backs squad, let’s remind everybody of the star of this squad in some leaner years before Carroll arrived.

That would be Ketel Marte. You remember him. He was doing that Mookie Betts infield/outfield thing before Mookie Betts. He was a shortstop, then a second baseman, then a center fielder, then a second baseman, then a center fielder, then a second baseman. He was an All-Star and ranked fourth in the NL MVP voting in 2019, when he tapped into his power to go with his plate discipline. He was the guy fans across the country dreamed up fake trades for.

Alas, Marte’s power disappeared in the shortened 2020 season. He dealt with injuries in 2021 and was just sort of average in 2022. And Carroll’s arrival this year further dulled his star. But if anyone had overlooked or ignored Marte’s strong bounce back (25 homers, 26 doubles, nine triples, 128 OPS+) and improved health this season, there ought to be no overlooking or ignoring it now.

Marte took Brewers ace Corbin Burnes deep with a lined, 108.2 mph homer to tie Game 1, then added a two-run single and a walk in Game 2. He has a lot more help in this lineup than he once did. He no longer has to carry this club. Nor is he dealing with the weight of injuries or a position switch. He’s healthy, he’s hammering the ball, and he’s here to remind us that Carroll is not this club’s only offensive star.

Phillies over MarlinsTakeaway: A star is aligning in the Phillies’ bullpen

What do you want us to tell you? That the Fish, frisky though they may be, were no match for the Phillies? That Citizens Bank Park is bonkers? That the Fightins are fun? That Bryce Harper has some of the best swag in baseball? That the mighty Braves will have their hands full when they face their division foes in the NLDS, especially if Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are on point?

We could have told you all that before this sweep.

But there’s nothing like a rookie revelation to change the scope of a series, and the Phillies just might have one on their hands in the form of right-handed reliever Orion Kerkering. The 22-year-old Kerkering, a fifth-round Draft pick in 2022, made his MLB debut … last week. And he made his postseason debut in Game 2. He threw nine pitches, eight for strikes, and retired the three batters he faced. He threw a 98-mph two-seamer and an 88-mph sweeper that is more disgusting than day-old Philly cheez whiz.

The Phillies have a deeper bullpen than last year, but it’s going to take everything they’ve got to tame this historic Braves lineup. It looks like Orion can serve as their brand new huntsman.