2023 Fantasy Baseball Prospects: Top 10 at first base features Miguel Vargas, Tyler Soderstrom, Matt Mervis
Vargas #Vargas
I was tempted to go only five deep at this position. It doesn’t have much more to offer in dynasty leagues and never has.
First base is the ultimate fallback, the position where major league-caliber bats go when they’ve outgrown some other position, and generally that doesn’t happen until the highest levels of the minors or even the majors itself. So while there’s probably no shortage of future first basemen in the minors, the majority aren’t first baseman yet.
Having said, the top five listed here happen to be really, really good — the kind of prospects who should be stashed away in dynasty leagues of all sizes and who could factor as soon as 2023.
For two of them, Miguel Vargas and Tyler Soderstrom, it’s yet to be determined whether first base is the final destination. The former started out at third base and that latter at catcher, and those positions, as well as the outfield, remain in play. For everyone else, though, it’s first base or bust.
Note: This list is intended for a variety of Fantasy formats and thus weighs short-term role against long-term value. Not all of these players will contribute in 2023 — most, in fact, will not — but among prospects, they’re the names Fantasy Baseballers most need to know.
1. Miguel Vargas, Dodgers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: .304 BA (438 AB), 17 HR, 16 SB, .915 OPS, 71 BB, 76 K
Major-league stats: .170 BA (47 AB), 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 SB, 2 BB, 13 K
Vargas ended up having only a cameo role with the Dodgers in 2022 despite threatening for more, but there are signs that they’re clearing the path for their best minor-league bat, most likely in left field or at third base. He’s a natural hitter who doesn’t try to do too much at the plate, and his high quality of contact should lead to more over-the-fence power as he fills out.
2. Triston Casas, Red Sox
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: Rookie, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: .281 BA (278 AB), 12 HR, .889 OPS, 49 BB, 70 K
Major-league stats: .197 BA (76 AB), 5 HR, .766 OPS, 19 BB, 23 K
The production has yet to measure up to the hype for Casas, but just because it hasn’t by age 22 doesn’t mean it never will. The skills that have earned him comparisons to Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto were on full display in his first taste of the majors, including massive on-base ability and an opposite-field stroke that should play well at Fenway Park.
3. Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .267 BA (505 AB), 29 HR, .825 OPS, 40 BB, 145 K
Given his reputation as an advanced hitter with power to spare, Soderstrom’s 2022 was something of a disappointment, but he rebounded from a miserable April to hit .283 with an .865 OPS from May 1 on. He already seems to be outgrowing catcher, which may actually be for the better in dynasty leagues since it’ll cut down on his development time and keep his bat on the lineup.
4. Matt Mervis, Cubs
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .309 BA (512 AB), 36 HR, 40 2B, .984 OPS, 50 BB, 107 K
Mervis could be the “it” prospect in spring training after breezing through three levels of the Cubs’ minor-league system, cutting down on his strikeouts at every stop, and then leading the Arizona Fall League in home runs. Internal evaluations have compared him to Anthony Rizzo, and the Cubs have left first base wide open for him.
5. Kyle Manzardo, Rays
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .327 BA (324 AB), 22 HR, 1.043 OPS, 59 BB, 65 K
Manzardo has the look of a hitting savant, showing a mastery of the strike zone, advanced pitch recognition and an ability to maximize his middling power profile with good batted-ball placement. HIs production held strong with a move up to Double-A midseason. My one hesitation is he plays for the Rays, and well, they never make it easy, do they?
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: Rookie, Low-A
Minor-league stats: .206 BA (97 AB), 3 HR, .709 OPS, 13 BB, 25 K
A born slugger with foul poll-to-foul poll power, Melendez is the reigning Golden Spikes Award winner for best college player and would be getting more prospect love if he played any other position. The dream scenario is that he follows in the footsteps of Pete Alonso, another second-rounder whose defensive limitations kept him under the radar until he reached the highest levels.
7. Niko Kavadas, Red Sox
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .280 BA (393 AB), 26 HR, .990 OPS, 102 BB, 152 K
Before you get too excited about the numbers, let me remind you that Kavadas was a 23-year-old who spent most of his season at A-ball. The cracks began to show when he moved up to Double-A for his final 24 games. He’s powerful and patient but also rather rotund, evoking comparisons to Daniel Vogelbach, and a similar role may be the best he can hope for.
8. Robert Perez, Mariners
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, High-A
Minor-league stats: .288 BA (465 AB), 27 HR, .921 OPS, 71 BB, 142 K
As a right-handed hitter who’s confined to first base, Perez has an uphill battle to Fantasy relevance, but he’s made big enough strides the past couple years to at least make it feasible, first learning to maximize his power and then learning how to take a walk. He reached base at an absurd .477 clip after his move up to High-A, batting .342.
9. Blaine Crim, Rangers
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .293 BA (515 AB), 24 HR, .843 OPS, 51 BB, 95 K
Big, left-handed mashers have few positions they can play, with first base being the most obvious, so it’s a shame that the same is true for Crim, who stands 5-feet-11 and bats right-handed. His production has been on point and seemed to find another gear over the final two months, when he hit .339 with a .962 OPS, but it’ll take a lucky break for him to get a real chance.
10. Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .275 BA (403 AB), 12 HR, 33 2B, .843 OPS, 73 BB, 95 K
Horwitz has been a bit of the project for the Blue Jays, who need him to hit for more power if he’s going to make it as a first baseman, and efforts to shorten his swing have indeed yielded higher exit velocities. He has such a good feel for the strike zone that he’ll probably have a role regardless, but everyday duty seem like a long shot.