2021 WGC-Dell Match Play best bets: Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy offer incredible value to win it all
Rory #Rory
The world of wagering on PGA Tour events is always difficult to navigate, and while this week’s WGC-Dell Match Play may or may not make it any easier, it certainly makes it more straightforward. Over the first three days at Austin Country Club, 111 matches will be played between the best golfers on the planet, and there are (at least theoretically) ways to exploit the lines on all of them.
Winners are harder to pick this week — which is why nobody’s odds are shorter than Justin Thomas’ at 12-1 — but the head-to-head matchups are both cleaner and create more volatility than we otherwise see at a PGA Tour event. Again, I don’t know that this makes things easier when you’re looking at the odds, but it does make it more fun and brings more chaos into play, which is great if you can navigate it.
Let’s try to do so with seven bets I love this week at Austin Country Club courtesy of our friends at William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Patrick Cantlay to win Group 10 (+138, paired with Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama and Carlos Ortiz): Cantlay would be a horror show to face. He’s extraordinarily skilled, doesn’t miss greens and is a plus in every strokes-gained category. Also, he’s a slow player who is probably a great trash talker. He might not see hole No. 17 until the weekend.
2. Brendon Todd to win Group 14 (+350, paired with Daniel Berger, Erik Van Rooyen and Harris English): Todd is in the opposite of the group of death. With Berger (potentially injured), English (fallen off after his early win) and van Rooyen (struggling with his game) in his pod, that +350 number is tasty.
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3. Sergio Garcia to win Group 8 (+210, paired with Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Wallace and Lee Westwood): He should probably be the favorite in his pool here, even with Hatton and Westwood involved. Hatton has just one top 10 in his last five events, and Garcia has been hitting it as well as anyone in the world. The angst involved in his matchup with Hatton will be off the charts, but I love him at this number.
4. Corey Conners to beat Matthew Wolff (+100): What am I missing here? Conners is one of just eight golfers who are gaining 2.0 or more strokes per round in 2021, and Wolff has been the worst player in this field so far in 2021.
5. Dustin Johnson to win (14-1): I told myself I wouldn’t pick anybody to win this week, but this is too tempting. He’s coming off a run of tournaments where he was as short as 6-1 to win, and while his talent can’t overwhelm in a non-72-hole event, he’s still the best player in the world and has won this tournament on this golf course before.
6. Rory McIlroy to win (20-1): When is the last time he was at this number? Also, his 72-hole events seem to get derailed by one- or two-hole stretches where he’ll go double-triple or something ridiculous like that. That’s bad for stroke play but great for match play.
7. Cameron Smith to win Group 11 (+230, paired with Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter and Lanto Griffin): This is a bit of an early hedge against the Rory pick. Smith has been (somewhat quietly?) lights out for the last few months, and if Rory is still wandering a bit, I think he comes out of this foursome.