2021 MLB Cy Young Award Odds: Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom Early AL, NL Favorites

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The 2021 MLB season is the time for New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole to collect his first Cy Young award in the eyes of oddsmakers.

DraftKings Sportsbook listed Cole (+350, bet $100 to win $350) as the slight favorite ahead 2020 winner Shane Bieber (+400) in the American League. Not surprisingly, New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom (+500) leads the way in the National League.

Cole was the AL’s ERA leader (2.50) in 2019, and he also had an MLB-high 326 strikeouts. He could still only manage a runner-up finish behind then-Houston Astros teammate Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young voting.

The 30-year-old’s production declined slightly after signing a historic nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees. His FIP fell from 2.64 to 3.89, while he averaged more than two fewer strikeouts per nine innings (11.6), per Baseball Reference. Still, it’s tough to base too much on a 60-game season.

Meanwhile, Bieber will have a hard time maintaining the 1.63 ERA he sported in his 12 starts in 2020.

Whereas DraftKings Sportsbook sees the AL as a bit of a three-horse race between Cole, Bieber and Chicago White Sox star Lucas Giolito, the NL is a little more wide open.

DeGrom is the obvious choice at the outset. He captured the Cy Young in 2018 and 2019 and finished second in WAR (2.6) among NL pitchers in 2020, per FanGraphs. 

The 32-year-old will face some stiff competition in the senior circuit. Trevor Bauer is sticking around after signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Max Scherzer is a three-time winner, though his 3.74 ERA in 2020 was his highest since 2012. The San Diego Padres acquired 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

Bauer’s triumph was a bit unexpected based on the preseason odds. DraftKings Sportsbook didn’t have him among the NL’s top six last February:

Perhaps former Reds teammate Luis Castillo could be a dark horse. Castillo has steadily improved over each of the last three years, and he has one of the best changeups in baseball.

And for as much attention as the additions of Snell and Yu Darvish received, Dinelson Lamet is coming off a fourth-place showing in the 2020 voting. If he can stay healthy, then he could emerge as the best pitcher on San Diego’s staff.

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