16 Stats: Mittelstadt-Byram swap, Colton Parayko’s value, the surging Islanders

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Two years ago there may not have been a more tantalizing young defenseman in the NHL than Bowen Byram — and a more frustrating young forward than Casey Mittelstadt.

One was a 20-year-old picked No. 4 just two years prior who looked like he was on the cusp of superstardom thanks to a magnificent playoff run where he often looked like one of the best players on the ice. The other was a 22-year-old picked No. 8 four years prior who had so far only looked disappointing given his draft pedigree.

Two years later the tides have seriously shifted and Byram and Middlestadt have come together for one of the most fascinating trades in years. Both Colorado and Buffalo traded from a position of strength to fill a position of need and did so with two players who come with tremendous upside … and risk.

With Byram and Mittelstadt, the talent level is obvious, but only one of those players is currently making do. That’s Mittelstadt, who looks much closer to a finished product — a product that is almost exactly what he was billed to be. He’s grown into a creative playmaker who can drive a second line. He’s an all-three-zone player who does well getting pucks out, moving pucks up and then creating in-zone chances. That fills a major void for Colorado with Mittelstadt scoring 2.25 points per 60 at five-on-five in each of the last two seasons and showing off a rare talent for earning more goals than expected. With improved defense this season, he looks like a perfect fit.

The risk with Mittelstadt is whether that ability to generate more goals than expected is legit. Over the last two seasons, the Sabres have scored 3.4 goals per 60 with Mittelstadt on the ice, well above their 2.6 expected goals per 60. There’s likely some truth to that given his ability to create scoring chances off his passes, but also the possibility of some regression as a scorer. 

Essentially, Mittelstadt checks in with a projected Net Rating of plus-3.9 — but he might not be that good.

For Byram, it’s the opposite. His projection for next season is minus-0.2 and he’s below average this season — but he might not be that bad.

There’s a reason two savvy organizations viewed this as an equal deal, one that may not be as lopsided as some analysts may currently view it. Mittelstadt may be the better player at the moment, but Byram’s potential is what makes it worth it for the Sabres.

Byram’s on-ice results have never really been stellar aside from that one playoff run, but that’s partially due to injury troubles and having to play with basically everyone but Nathan MacKinnon’s line in Colorado. The team’s depth has taken a serious hit since its Stanley Cup win in 2022 and that limits Byram’s teammate quality given Cale Makar spends so much time with MacKinnon. In previous years he looked like a serious driver when it comes to individual possession-driving and it shows in Corey Sznajder’s tracked data.

Just last year Byram had the profile of a future star in the right situation: someone who can move the puck well in the defensive zone, defend his own blue line, rush up ice and create a serious amount of chances in the offensive zone. There may be other stuff he doesn’t do well that hampered his on-ice results, but skill-wise it looked like Byram had it. His puck efficiency was tremendous across the board.

That’s all changed this year; none of those facets have been true and he’s been below average in every regard except rushing up ice. It’s been a night-and-day change, one that speaks to a need for a change of scenery where he can show more in a top-four role.

Byram wasn’t getting that in Colorado, but he should get more opportunity in Buffalo — even with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power around on the left side. 

This deal may not look perfectly fair at the moment, but everything hinges on what Byram can become. The talent and opportunity are there for him to make this a win for the Sabres. Can he take advantage of it?

1. With Morgan Rielly suspended, Timothy Liljegren got a really interesting audition on the top pair with TJ Brodie. The Leafs won all five games, Liljegren had seven points and the Leafs outscored opponents 7-4 with him on the ice. That’s not bad, but it’s worth noting his expected goals rate was 47.7 percent, the lowest of the team’s defensemen.

There have always been questions regarding whether Liljegren can handle tougher competition. He’s an excellent puck-retriever and puck-mover and his underlying numbers always sparkle — but that’s always been in a more sheltered role. 

This year he’s seen a bigger opportunity to do more and while there have been some strong efforts, games like the one he had against David Pastrnak and the Bruins cast a sea of doubt.

With that in mind, I went to look at how Liljegren has fared against top-line players this season. His expected goals numbers are solid at 51 percent, but his actual goals do drop to 44 percent. 

That’s not ideal against the best of the best, but it is worth keeping in mind that overall he’s still looked solid when paired with either Brodie or Jake McCabe. In 154 minutes with Brodie, Liljegren is at 50.7 percent of the expected goals and 57.8 percent of the goals. With McCabe, he’s at 59.3 percent and 62.1 percent, respectively. 

Those are pairs that look like they could work, even if they may require some patience to work out some growing pains as he acclimates to that level of competition. 

2. I get a lot of questions about Colton Parayko, a player Blues fans swear by but whose modeled value doesn’t exactly line up. And I don’t blame them.

Blues fans see a still solid top-pair defenseman hamstrung by his surroundings, one who can defend well and move the puck. And they’re right about some of those things. Models see a player in over his head who doesn’t offer much offense and has been crushed by his surroundings, enough to be skeptical about just how good he really is.

A decent defenseman in a difficult situation with little support on a bad team? Those are always the trickiest players to analyze. When enough fans look at the numbers and tell you “This is wrong, this guy is still legit,” it’s enough to give pause and dig deeper.

I’m still in the process of working out better quality of teammate and competition adjustments for situations like this which will hopefully be ready before the playoffs. Early indications suggest those adjustments should make Parayko look a fair bit better. Offensively he still looks like a drag, but defensively he’s 22nd in competition difficulty and 12th in teammate quality. That’s an onerous situation, so the fact he even carries an average Defensive Rating is pretty impressive. His defensive burden is the fifth hardest in the league.

Parayko’s contract is still dicey — he’s 31 and has six years after this one at $6.5 million per — and acquiring him is risky given his recent results. But in the right situation with the right fit, he looks like someone who can thrive as a potential No. 2. 

3. One thing to note about David Savard, Jonas Siegel’s ideal target for the Leafs: He’s an absolute turnstile at his own blue line. According to Sznajder’s tracking data, no player defended his blue line worse than Savard did last season, which was 28 percent of the time. That’s also the case this season at 23 percent, albeit in a very limited sample of minutes tracked. That might explain why he allows so many chances and goals against, even relative to a bad team. Savard plays tough minutes on a bad team, but part of the reason his team is so bad is because he’s in that role.

4. This is the spiciest Hart Trophy race in recent memory with no consensus leader and four guys with a legitimate case. We’ll have more on that in Awards Watch next week, but for now, here’s how the top four stack up by Net Rating.

That’s four guys separated by only five goals — very tight. 

I went back to 2007-08 to see how much separation there usually is between the top four Hart finalists in a given year. On average the gap is usually closer to 9.1 goals, but there have been tighter races than this one — at least according to Net Rating. Most notably, in 2008-09, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Pavel Datsyuk and Zach Parise were all separated by just 1.6 goals at the top.

What’s noteworthy is just how strong each player has been. The average Hart Trophy winner has had an average Net Rating of 21.8 per 82 games. All four players are on pace to land an average of 26.9. That’s the highest on record.

5. What’s up with Cale Makar? That might feel like a loaded question given he’s near the top of most Norris ballots, but that seems to be only based on his still sensational point totals.

A defenseman scoring at a 93-point pace is obviously tough to ignore and puts him right in line with his last two seasons, but things aren’t as peachy elsewhere. He’s been on the ice for a career-low 53 percent of the expected goals and just 51 percent of the actual goals. Relative to teammates, both figures are negative for the first time in his career. 

That’s happening despite an absurd number of offensive zone starts and a lot of time spent with MacKinnon. What’s alarming is that MacKinnon’s goal and expected goal percentage is much higher this season when he’s playing without Makar.

Combination

Minutes

GF%

xGF%

MacKinnon with Makar

672

55.6

54.9

MacKinnon without Makar

392

65.3

58.2

Makar without MacKinnon

302

38.5

45.6

That wasn’t the case in prior seasons. We can excuse Makar for some of the non-MacKinnon talent he’s subjected to away from him, but it’s still a major drop that is very unlike Makar’s usual standard. Their time together hasn’t been nearly as dominant as it has in past years, either. In the prior two seasons, the duo earned 66 percent of the goals and 58 percent of the expected goals — which is in line with where MacKinnon is this season without Makar.

6. It’s very possible Makar’s underwhelming play is injury-related. We’ve seen both Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews look off over the past two seasons due to nagging injuries and the same may be happening to Makar.

Before an injury briefly sidelined Makar in December, he looked like a potential Hart Trophy candidate. Since coming back, though, things have been very different.

Cale Makar in 2023-24

Period

Point pace

GF%

xGF%

OFF RTG/82

DEF RTG/82

Pre-injury

121

64.4

57.2

+24.6

+4.3

Post-injury

75

43.4

50.2

+8.4

-9.1

Here’s hoping he looks closer to his usual self come playoff time. He certainly did Wednesday night against Detroit, one of his best games in a while.

7. Nashville’s eight-game winning streak was snapped Tuesday, but we can still take note of how sensational Roman Josi was during that stretch to help make it happen. In those eight games, he scored four goals and 12 points, had 67 percent of the expected goals and outscored opponents 15-3. That was good for an average Game Score of 3.3, a hot streak scintillating enough to vault him into the top five for Net Rating among defensemen this season. When it’s time to think about the game’s best defensemen, don’t forget about Josi.

8. The Predators signed Tommy Novak to a three-year extension with a $3.5 million AAV, a deal that has the potential to be a real steal if he can translate what he’s currently doing to a bigger role.

Novak has scored at a 54-point pace this season and has really turned it on since the All-Star break with 11 points in 12 games. What makes him really tantalizing as a player, though, is what lies under the hood. 

According to data tracked by Sznajder, Novak has earned 12.5 scoring chance contributions per 60 this season and has entered the zone with control 79 percent of the time. Both of those are top 10 marks and point to a player who is very skilled with the puck. Novak looks like the real deal.

9. When Kyle Connor was out of the lineup for a prolonged stretch of time, I brought up the Ewing Theory to Murat Ates. Essentially, it boils down to a team doing a lot better without their supposed star player — and the Jets were certainly doing a lot better.

On Dec. 10, when Connor was injured, the Jets were a strong 16-8-2 and since his return have gone 11-7-1. Combined, that’s a strong 104-point pace. In his absence, though, they dominated, going 12-2-2. That shows up in their five-on-five numbers as well: The Jets had a 57.5 percent expected goals rate without Connor and are at just 50.3 percent with him.

That’s not all on Connor — the Jets played a really soft schedule without him — but his absence did bring about one key change: more playing time for Nikolaj Ehlers.

Without Connor in the lineup, Ehlers got two extra minutes of ice per game and made it count with 17 points in 16 games. At five-on-five, the top line was lethal, outscoring teams 18-5 and earning 57 percent of the expected goals.

10. We’ve been banging on the “play Ehlers more” drum for too long around here and it’s unfathomable that he’s still earning such little ice time given his talent level. Compared to Connor, the decision shouldn’t be that difficult. In each of the last three seasons, Ehlers has had a better points-per-60 rate at five-on-five, a better expected goals percentage and has outscored opponents by a wider margin. Consistently, every season, like clockwork — and it hasn’t been particularly close either.

Since 2021-22

Player

PTS/60

GF%

xGF%

2.59

62.4

54.1

2.06

49.9

49

It shouldn’t be this difficult for a team to know who its best winger is, and it might cost the Jets both now and in the future.

11. I thought a change of scenery would be a good thing for Elias Lindholm, but he’s somehow been worse with the Canucks. His points per 60 has dropped from 1.52 to 1.27 and he’s been an even bigger drag on the team’s on-ice numbers. His relative expected goal rate of minus-0.36 with Calgary has somehow dropped even further to minus-0.59 with Vancouver. The fit just hasn’t been there so far and it should be no surprise that he may be flipped to another team so the Canucks can pursue someone better (Jake Guentzel).

12. Over their last 30 games, the Florida Panthers are 24-4-2 and lead the league with a plus-50 goal differential and plus-30 expected goal differential. They’re looking like the team to beat in the East, especially after adding Vladimir Tarasenko.

The biggest driver of Florida’s explosion toward that level? Matthew Tkachuk looking like Matthew Tkachuk again. The holiday break looks to be the exact inflection point where he truly started taking over. 

Since that point, he’s third in league scoring with 48 points in 29 games and has earned a Net Rating of plus-9.3, fourth behind McDavid, MacKinnon and Matthews. Before the season started Tkachuk was making a claim as a potential top-five player and he looks to be fully back to that level. And Florida looks unstoppable because of it.

13. Lost in the shuffle of Ottawa’s lost season is how good Shane Pinto has been since returning from suspension. On a poor team, he’s somehow earning 59 percent of the expected goals and 57 percent of the expected goals. Add that to his 16 points in 18 games and Pinto is looking like a really promising piece of the puzzle for the Senators. Maybe next year they can finally put it all together.

14. Speaking of bad teams with reasons for optimism: The Columbus Blue Jackets have been stringing together some competitive efforts recently, and that’s something worth mentioning.

Columbus still has a pretty pedestrian 5-7-0 record since the All-Star break, but the team’s underlying numbers have looked surprisingly good. The Blue Jackets have earned 51 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five (13th) and 54 percent of the actual goals (ninth). 

That’s a really nice stretch from a lottery team, one that’s finally being led by some of the top guys. Zach Werenski has looked more like himself and the team’s top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic has outchanced and outscored opponents by a hefty margin.

There’s still a lot of work to do in Columbus, but if they can build on this recent stretch and finish strong, the Blue Jackets may be a team on the rise next season.

15. On Jan. 20, the Islanders’ playoff chances were 24 percent. They’re up to 60 percent now — call it the Patrick Roy effect.

Islanders fans were extremely vocal that Lane Lambert was holding a better-than-it-seems team back from its true potential. They were right on the money. 

The big thing for me was how suddenly porous a usually stingy Islanders team looked all season. That’s the biggest thing that’s changed under Roy, as the team’s defensive game has been cleaned up considerably. 

In 45 games under Lambert, the Islanders allowed 2.82 expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five (24th) and 9.82 on the penalty kill (25th). Private data actually felt that was generous to the team. Under Roy, things have shifted immensely. The penalty kill still isn’t strong, but it’s improved at least to 9.0 expected goals against per 60 (18th). The big ticket, though, is their chance suppression at five-on-five. Since Roy became the coach, the Islanders have allowed only 2.1 expected goals against per 60, a mark that leads the league.

That’s more like the Islanders we know and it’s propelled the team to an expected goals rate of 54 percent, a top-five mark. They look like they can do some damage come playoff time.

16. The Devils’ season can be characterized by the simple phrase “too little, too late.” Firing Lindy Ruff in March with Travis Green taking over certainly qualifies for a team that entered the season with much higher aspirations than 12th in the East.

However, it’s worth noting that since the All-Star break the team has looked a lot better under the hood with 53 percent of the expected goals (10th) and 11 expected goals per 60 on the power play (sixth). Of course, that doesn’t matter if no one can put the puck in the net.

Over this pivotal stretch of games, the Devils went 6-8-1 despite an expected goal differential of plus-10.1, the third-best mark in the league. Compare that to the actual retail price of minus-8.7 and you can see why the Devils have fallen almost completely out of the playoff race. And this time around it’s been entirely a finishing problem.

The goalies have been a big problem all season and cost the team many games, but the nail in the coffin came from the other side. The Devils haven’t been able to put all the pieces together at once this season. They should be back next year, but this hasn’t been their year.

Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards and All Three Zones

(Top photos of Bowen Byram and Casey Mittelstadt: Michael Reaves / Getty Images and Arianne Bergeron / NHLI via Getty Images)